{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac89b7b7-107e-4b0e-ad55-930580c2d176", "symbol": "CEA", "name": "FRIWO AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 80.182, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.398, "architecture_energy": 45.819, "architecture_maturity": 61.018, "architecture_confidence": 81.389, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.38, "rotation_up": 17.43, "upward_expansion": 5.45, "deceleration": 59.02, "rotation_down": 60.18, "downward_expansion": 78.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.801333, 4.870545, 4.908762, 5.073204 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.76, "trend_reference": 5.461, "distance_from_trend": -0.128365, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.60968, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.71342, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.254743, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.389744, "excess_performance": -0.454383, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128365, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017806, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.71342, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034004, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.232547, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020401, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.389744, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.626182, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1461, "relative_activity": 0.403541, "balance": 2.626182, "dry_up": 1.313442, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057207, "annualized_volatility": 0.342508, "from_high_reference": -0.537864, "from_low_reference": 0.101852 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.461, "fair_value_reference": 16.60968, "structural_low": 4.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.00885, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.030256, "regime_survival": 0.914286, "best_return": 0.512195, "worst_return": -0.5625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.10578, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.156753, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.042553, "worst_return": -0.628505, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.273058, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.348117, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.103896, "worst_return": -0.613636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-23", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.203046, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.096552, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.188525, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.213333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033058, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040323, 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"fair_value": 17.001731, "relative_strength": -21.269873, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.31024, "energy": 53.394572, "activity_lines": [ 4.844667, 4.909818, 4.941429, 5.164194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.88, "volume": 15038, "typical_volume": 3624.85, "trend": 5.504, "fair_value": 16.798397, "relative_strength": -20.086349, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.280121, "energy": 44.12314, "activity_lines": [ 4.837333, 4.900909, 4.929571, 5.121204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.76, "volume": 1461, "typical_volume": 3620.45, "trend": 5.461, "fair_value": 16.60968, "relative_strength": -23.254743, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.397723, "energy": 45.818928, "activity_lines": [ 4.801333, 4.870545, 4.908762, 5.073204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }