{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "ac905ce1-3ab0-499d-b894-334853b16d32",
    "symbol": "CPH",
    "name": "Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc.",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 58.87,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 35.689,
    "architecture_energy": 15.093,
    "architecture_maturity": 30.732,
    "architecture_confidence": 57.974,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 52.61,
        "rotation_up": 36.82,
        "upward_expansion": 52.6,
        "deceleration": 63.36,
        "rotation_down": 20.14,
        "downward_expansion": 20.93
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        16.916666,
        16.808909,
        17.024714,
        16.992774
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 17.549999,
    "trend_reference": 16.661,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.053358,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 12.288333,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.428184,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -1.985609,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.21875,
    "excess_performance": 0.098329,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.053358,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.047181,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.428184,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.335265,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.019856,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.194397,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.21875,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.386371,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 101300,
      "relative_activity": 1.039881,
      "balance": 0.386371,
      "dry_up": 0.842016,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.053079,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.343114,
      "from_high_reference": -0.146401,
      "from_low_reference": 0.40625
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 16.661,
      "fair_value_reference": 12.288333,
      "structural_low": 14.2,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": 0.016047,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.01581,
        "regime_survival": 0.571429,
        "best_return": 0.726077,
        "worst_return": -0.224148,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.247973,
        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": 0.22507,
        "regime_survival": 0.142857,
        "best_return": 0.839578,
        "worst_return": -0.201789,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.274672,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.381675,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.578761,
        "worst_return": 0.026393,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 1.096045,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.963445,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 1.1744,
        "worst_return": 0.832845,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-06-14",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.420375,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-10-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.091476,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-10-11",
        "end": "2024-10-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.075461,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-25",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.172518,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.057873,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.050773,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.1648,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-09",
        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.12509,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-08",
        "end": "2025-10-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.045455,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-10-24",
        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.006901,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-02-20",
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.111111,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-03-20",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.045263,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-05-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.108511,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-05-29",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.051528,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 3.75,
        "volume": 102600,
        "typical_volume": 66285.0,
        "trend": 3.575667,
        "fair_value": 2.298013,
        "relative_strength": 8.409758,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 14.757961,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-08-25",
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        "typical_volume": 70135.0,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-01",
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      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-22",
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        "date": "2024-01-12",
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        "date": "2024-01-19",
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        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.71528,
        "energy": 56.366394,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.268667,
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          16.815428,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 19.74,
        "volume": 201600,
        "typical_volume": 144780.0,
        "trend": 15.681667,
        "fair_value": 11.193974,
        "relative_strength": 17.454125,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 80.190785,
        "energy": 59.813994,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "volume": 235500,
        "typical_volume": 151090.0,
        "trend": 15.771667,
        "fair_value": 11.282756,
        "relative_strength": 4.141753,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 58.516347,
        "energy": 42.374543,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.315333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "volume": 87800,
        "typical_volume": 149420.0,
        "trend": 15.847333,
        "fair_value": 11.366795,
        "relative_strength": -1.56944,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.669124,
        "energy": 27.782242,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 147700.0,
        "trend": 15.910333,
        "fair_value": 11.448718,
        "relative_strength": -2.829158,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "energy": 18.570651,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.335334,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 16.84,
        "volume": 8200,
        "typical_volume": 141295.0,
        "trend": 16.022333,
        "fair_value": 11.532436,
        "relative_strength": -0.89645,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 25.664065,
        "energy": 23.788213,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 16.309999,
        "volume": 17400,
        "typical_volume": 134700.0,
        "trend": 16.127667,
        "fair_value": 11.612949,
        "relative_strength": -5.356469,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 12.137786,
        "energy": 21.319008,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "volume": 9800,
        "typical_volume": 128475.0,
        "trend": 16.202,
        "fair_value": 11.693782,
        "relative_strength": -5.270613,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "direction": 0.763807,
        "energy": 18.225963,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 16.41,
        "volume": 11500,
        "typical_volume": 123615.0,
        "trend": 16.241333,
        "fair_value": 11.77609,
        "relative_strength": -4.802249,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 1.371512,
        "energy": 17.115448,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.444667,
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          17.195571,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 17.17,
        "volume": 20200,
        "typical_volume": 118165.0,
        "trend": 16.327,
        "fair_value": 11.863846,
        "relative_strength": -1.092675,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 4.28081,
        "energy": 13.462769,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.662667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 17.129999,
        "volume": 57300,
        "typical_volume": 116065.0,
        "trend": 16.431667,
        "fair_value": 11.95109,
        "relative_strength": -1.512474,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 18.260804,
        "energy": 11.153827,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.835333,
          16.819273,
          17.218809,
          16.928817
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 16.4,
        "volume": 72500,
        "typical_volume": 114560.0,
        "trend": 16.488667,
        "fair_value": 12.032179,
        "relative_strength": -5.649106,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 9.512661,
        "energy": 7.597098,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.745333,
          16.696,
          17.143714,
          16.926774
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 16.25,
        "volume": 56400,
        "typical_volume": 112345.0,
        "trend": 16.527,
        "fair_value": 12.112436,
        "relative_strength": -6.812895,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -2.159632,
        "energy": 5.649328,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.599333,
          16.606182,
          17.047714,
          16.911376
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 16.83,
        "volume": 97900,
        "typical_volume": 103985.0,
        "trend": 16.591333,
        "fair_value": 12.197885,
        "relative_strength": -3.198382,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 16.24126,
        "energy": 11.515593,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.652,
          16.642727,
          17.001762,
          16.930925
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 17.549999,
        "volume": 101300,
        "typical_volume": 97415.0,
        "trend": 16.661,
        "fair_value": 12.288333,
        "relative_strength": -1.985609,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 35.689324,
        "energy": 15.093478,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.916666,
          16.808909,
          17.024714,
          16.992774
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}