{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac9c5503-8e29-4721-9187-8398ffb08a74", "symbol": "MLCMB", "name": "Compagnie Du Mont-Blanc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.459, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 1.835, "architecture_energy": 25.576, "architecture_maturity": 23.553, "architecture_confidence": 54.089, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.74, "rotation_up": 47.77, "upward_expansion": 37.43, "deceleration": 43.69, "rotation_down": 14.04, "downward_expansion": 43.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 247.333333, 241.854545, 239.409524, 243.853763 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 248.0, "trend_reference": 251.133333, "distance_from_trend": -0.012477, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 173.763588, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.427227, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.5115, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.094891, "excess_performance": -0.148202, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012477, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063387, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.427227, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04197, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095115, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075806, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.094891, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.640511, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 288, "relative_activity": 1.503916, "balance": 1.640511, "dry_up": 1.41906, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03536, "annualized_volatility": 0.189775, "from_high_reference": -0.205128, "from_low_reference": 0.181628 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 251.133333, "fair_value_reference": 173.763588, "structural_low": 218.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -9.4e-05, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.100775, "worst_return": -0.031008, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.016667, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.017879, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.108527, "worst_return": -0.023437, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.117997, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.056784, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.130036, "worst_return": -0.007936, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.117323, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.033502, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.629545, "worst_return": 0.075834, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015748, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023256, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046512, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.048738, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043478, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.183099, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02907, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 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"energy": 61.219786, "activity_lines": [ 229.2, 231.018182, 240.647619, 249.280767 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 236.0, "volume": 15, "typical_volume": 188.65, "trend": 260.6, "fair_value": 169.506725, "relative_strength": -10.832492, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.658069, "energy": 49.007438, "activity_lines": [ 231.466667, 231.345455, 239.380952, 247.578495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 236.0, "volume": 207, "typical_volume": 186.45, "trend": 258.133333, "fair_value": 170.296079, "relative_strength": -9.254327, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.298578, "energy": 38.656362, "activity_lines": [ 233.466667, 232.0, 238.304762, 245.991398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 240.0, "volume": 229, "typical_volume": 188.5, "trend": 256.133333, "fair_value": 171.116683, "relative_strength": -7.952154, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.808647, "energy": 29.733326, "activity_lines": [ 236.133333, 233.418182, 237.752381, 244.821505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 246.0, "volume": 311, "typical_volume": 186.05, "trend": 254.333333, "fair_value": 171.975748, "relative_strength": -6.299129, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.052183, "energy": 22.828248, "activity_lines": [ 239.866667, 235.927273, 237.92381, 244.167742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 254.0, "volume": 259, "typical_volume": 196.15, "trend": 252.533333, "fair_value": 172.886095, "relative_strength": -5.037154, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 11.426895, "energy": 24.27291, "activity_lines": [ 245.466667, 239.636364, 238.92381, 244.146237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 248.0, "volume": 288, "typical_volume": 191.5, "trend": 251.133333, "fair_value": 173.763588, "relative_strength": -9.5115, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.834603, "energy": 25.575924, "activity_lines": [ 247.333333, 241.854545, 239.409524, 243.853763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }