{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ac9c7725-c93a-4844-a933-a658daa8561a", "symbol": "3004", "name": "Northern Region Cement Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.141, "architecture_energy": 84.738, "architecture_maturity": 16.073, "architecture_confidence": 86.435, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.85, "rotation_up": 9.14, "upward_expansion": 21.15, "deceleration": 37.08, "rotation_down": 78.5, "downward_expansion": 96.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.514, 6.604545, 6.747238, 6.808043 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.53, "trend_reference": 6.880333, "distance_from_trend": -0.050918, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.354303, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.218367, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.691572, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.056358, "excess_performance": -0.024529, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050918, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03348, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.218367, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037769, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.076916, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036825, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.056358, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.077308, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 518789, "relative_activity": 0.711103, "balance": 0.077308, "dry_up": 0.851285, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021557, "annualized_volatility": 0.109174, "from_high_reference": -0.205596, "from_low_reference": 0.034865 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.880333, "fair_value_reference": 8.354303, "structural_low": 6.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.005271, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.013904, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.103571, "worst_return": -0.087617, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.025853, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.039887, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.114776, "worst_return": -0.096963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.052584, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.044353, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.104641, "worst_return": -0.080265, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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-6.934572, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.243311, "energy": 80.605494, "activity_lines": [ 6.67, 6.760909, 6.857952, 6.891462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.55, "volume": 470773, "typical_volume": 717159.45, "trend": 6.927333, "fair_value": 8.408316, "relative_strength": -7.683752, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.850615, "energy": 82.613334, "activity_lines": [ 6.613333, 6.710364, 6.824857, 6.865957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.4, "volume": 823475, "typical_volume": 714303.35, "trend": 6.900333, "fair_value": 8.380834, "relative_strength": -7.685129, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.039045, "energy": 91.510388, "activity_lines": [ 6.53, 6.640727, 6.778429, 6.831935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.53, "volume": 518789, "typical_volume": 729555.25, "trend": 6.880333, "fair_value": 8.354303, "relative_strength": -7.691572, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.140866, "energy": 84.738444, "activity_lines": [ 6.514, 6.604545, 6.747238, 6.808043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }