{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aca46541-87e5-47df-a64b-1f5e0a495f18", "symbol": "EQT", "name": "EQT Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.317, "architecture_energy": 33.387, "architecture_maturity": 58.103, "architecture_confidence": 84.027, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.51, "rotation_up": 26.13, "upward_expansion": 16.69, "deceleration": 46.28, "rotation_down": 35.88, "downward_expansion": 64.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.799991, 51.611073, 53.160289, 54.955913 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 51.69, "trend_reference": 56.433118, "distance_from_trend": -0.084048, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 46.425051, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.113408, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.08472, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.084578, "excess_performance": -0.210203, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.084048, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025232, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.113408, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125365, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.170847, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057772, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.084578, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.015539, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27898548, "relative_activity": 0.774724, "balance": 1.015539, "dry_up": 0.999284, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056988, "annualized_volatility": 0.288581, "from_high_reference": -0.240347, "from_low_reference": 0.081772 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.433118, "fair_value_reference": 46.425051, "structural_low": 47.782703, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.008535, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.002772, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.128362, "worst_return": -0.094808, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.000515, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.073817, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.370388, "worst_return": -0.151983, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.092261, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.047705, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.503701, "worst_return": -0.053818, "sufficient": false }, { 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"volume": 49715211, "typical_volume": 37752725.3, "trend": 56.404591, "fair_value": 46.27544, "relative_strength": -11.833736, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.216982, "energy": 51.236754, "activity_lines": [ 51.037602, 51.571429, 53.860519, 55.471982 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.118916, "volume": 33766039, "typical_volume": 37021135.55, "trend": 56.403396, "fair_value": 46.359128, "relative_strength": -12.090906, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.732125, "energy": 43.928873, "activity_lines": [ 51.670913, 51.677506, 53.552099, 55.260003 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.69, "volume": 27898548, "typical_volume": 36010968.85, "trend": 56.433118, "fair_value": 46.425051, "relative_strength": -17.08472, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.317267, "energy": 33.386608, "activity_lines": [ 51.799991, 51.611073, 53.160289, 54.955913 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }