{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aca78671-6138-46fe-9a06-47d835187879", "symbol": "002788", "name": "Luyan Pharma Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.003, "architecture_energy": 42.417, "architecture_maturity": 84.957, "architecture_confidence": 61.463, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.94, "rotation_up": 27.1, "upward_expansion": 18.39, "deceleration": 66.94, "rotation_down": 39.73, "downward_expansion": 66.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.47, 10.417349, 11.247853, 12.19631 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.15, "trend_reference": 13.86685, "distance_from_trend": -0.195924, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.473277, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.176995, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.487234, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.28754, "excess_performance": -0.29494, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.195924, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053328, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.176995, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.349447, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124872, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13103, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.28754, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.592097, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 108777218, "relative_activity": 0.795464, "balance": 0.592097, "dry_up": 1.000748, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11031, "annualized_volatility": 0.603494, "from_high_reference": -0.605868, "from_low_reference": 0.411392 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.86685, "fair_value_reference": 9.473277, "structural_low": 8.96, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.024286, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.005547, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.180706, "worst_return": -0.074527, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.059574, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.005437, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.12129, "worst_return": -0.073415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.057105, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.065501, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.110638, "worst_return": -0.104387, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.151823, "energy": 75.726714, "activity_lines": [ 10.167455, 10.412458, 11.598477, 12.674527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.2, "volume": 101751391, "typical_volume": 133847411.75, "trend": 14.201183, "fair_value": 9.457531, "relative_strength": -15.646698, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.442094, "energy": 55.263118, "activity_lines": [ 10.177003, 10.308904, 11.367689, 12.39316 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.15, "volume": 108777218, "typical_volume": 136746853.65, "trend": 13.86685, "fair_value": 9.473277, "relative_strength": -12.487234, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.002744, "energy": 42.417376, "activity_lines": [ 10.47, 10.417349, 11.247853, 12.19631 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }