{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aca81091-bcee-4f51-8b0b-67994437ec21", "symbol": "MEC", "name": "Morphic Ethical Equities Fund Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 57.303, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -13.194, "architecture_energy": 33.086, "architecture_maturity": 59.962, "architecture_confidence": 87.052, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.86, "rotation_up": 19.34, "upward_expansion": 48.02, "deceleration": 82.33, "rotation_down": 53.47, "downward_expansion": 37.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.238333, 1.275545, 1.27692, 1.251736 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.205, "trend_reference": 1.219667, "distance_from_trend": -0.012025, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.056399, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.140668, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.559591, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.069541, "excess_performance": 0.005836, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012025, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045872, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.140668, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049131, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.035596, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109293, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.069541, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.852639, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45784, "relative_activity": 0.846001, "balance": 0.852639, "dry_up": 1.065382, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036006, "annualized_volatility": 0.219503, "from_high_reference": -0.133094, "from_low_reference": 0.12351 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.219667, "fair_value_reference": 1.056399, "structural_low": 1.101429, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.002476, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003351, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.100917, "worst_return": -0.076271, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.003566, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.058649, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.025907, "worst_return": -0.138484, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.106796, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.001737, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.119538, "worst_return": -0.294857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053659, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005128, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060001, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066666, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.072727, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076271, 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.174741, "energy": 86.110192, "activity_lines": [ 1.340333, 1.32065, 1.267872, 1.235572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.35, "volume": 256, "typical_volume": 53866.6, "trend": 1.203906, "fair_value": 1.048551, "relative_strength": 14.295624, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.953416, "energy": 77.624135, "activity_lines": [ 1.346333, 1.329998, 1.279416, 1.245436 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.245, "volume": 50213, "typical_volume": 53331.9, "trend": 1.209655, "fair_value": 1.050415, "relative_strength": 5.314495, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.983069, "energy": 53.026598, "activity_lines": [ 1.314333, 1.31772, 1.280131, 1.248087 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.27, "volume": 38684, "typical_volume": 55247.5, "trend": 1.215581, "fair_value": 1.052607, "relative_strength": 7.474573, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.578701, "energy": 32.889831, "activity_lines": [ 1.296, 1.309452, 1.282945, 1.25198 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.225, "volume": 95945, "typical_volume": 59606.35, "trend": 1.218203, "fair_value": 1.054567, "relative_strength": 1.2206, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.858575, "energy": 25.755416, "activity_lines": [ 1.266, 1.293636, 1.281096, 1.252588 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.205, "volume": 45784, "typical_volume": 54118.15, "trend": 1.219667, "fair_value": 1.056399, "relative_strength": -3.559591, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -13.194007, "energy": 33.085694, "activity_lines": [ 1.238333, 1.275545, 1.27692, 1.251736 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }