{ "ticker": { "uuid": "acab790a-a024-4ee5-9590-492a2ed4a1db", "symbol": "HLTW", "name": "Amundi MSCI World Health Care UCITS ETF EUR Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 70.146, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.931, "architecture_energy": 55.346, "architecture_maturity": 20.245, "architecture_confidence": 69.887, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.48, "rotation_up": 66.3, "upward_expansion": 84.1, "deceleration": 61.46, "rotation_down": 17.35, "downward_expansion": 8.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 510.620663, 506.919638, 492.296906, 486.359699 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 513.049988, "trend_reference": 482.624999, "distance_from_trend": 0.063041, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 467.911874, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.096467, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.942201, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.050686, "excess_performance": -0.120206, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063041, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014153, "read": "Rising" 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446.119995, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.002208, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.003193, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.077023, "worst_return": -0.066023, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.017801, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.025435, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.054889, "worst_return": -0.088002, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.051444, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.101213, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.081942, "worst_return": -0.031224, "sufficient": 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"typical_volume": 3219.6, "trend": 481.222667, "fair_value": 466.959054, "relative_strength": -3.68067, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.470333, "energy": 84.803493, "activity_lines": [ 511.150004, 501.415823, 486.280383, 482.731571 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 506.470001, "volume": 4640, "typical_volume": 3241.7, "trend": 482.061333, "fair_value": 467.446426, "relative_strength": -5.472685, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.122597, "energy": 58.066404, "activity_lines": [ 509.800002, 503.891095, 489.04386, 484.360431 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 513.049988, "volume": 3693, "typical_volume": 3306.7, "trend": 482.624999, "fair_value": 467.911874, "relative_strength": -6.942201, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.930767, "energy": 55.346204, "activity_lines": [ 510.620663, 506.919638, 492.296906, 486.359699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }