{ "ticker": { "uuid": "acac34c6-c8a7-421e-b2ba-a1f2e6f2f87a", "symbol": "FSKY", "name": "First Trust Cloud Computing UCITS ETF Class A USD Accumulation", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.191, "architecture_energy": 74.021, "architecture_maturity": 36.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.116, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.24, "rotation_up": 67.69, "upward_expansion": 87.76, "deceleration": 49.11, "rotation_down": 18.08, "downward_expansion": 14.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.538333, 51.199182, 49.38481, 47.345269 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 56.810001, "trend_reference": 45.156833, "distance_from_trend": 0.25806, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.207468, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.378634, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.780345, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.436228, "excess_performance": 0.265336, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.25806, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026509, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.378634, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.225801, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.057803, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.158589, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.436228, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.657042, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30877, "relative_activity": 0.734369, "balance": 1.657042, "dry_up": 1.030203, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054053, "annualized_volatility": 0.342289, "from_high_reference": -0.002983, "from_low_reference": 0.53354 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.156833, "fair_value_reference": 41.207468, "structural_low": 37.044998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.006778, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.56, "median_excess_return": -0.005248, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.164197, "worst_return": -0.158388, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.018561, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.033997, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.26178, "worst_return": -0.282562, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.094752, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.09152, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.103146, "worst_return": -0.149396, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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51.599998, "volume": 112631, "typical_volume": 39437.15, "trend": 44.487167, "fair_value": 40.649071, "relative_strength": -2.618438, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.220161, "energy": 50.934206, "activity_lines": [ 49.723667, 49.548909, 46.993476, 45.502527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.724998, "volume": 82980, "typical_volume": 39981.9, "trend": 44.566833, "fair_value": 40.775865, "relative_strength": -4.575386, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.516922, "energy": 46.148902, "activity_lines": [ 49.872333, 49.687727, 47.46781, 45.840452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.165001, "volume": 36957, "typical_volume": 40953.65, "trend": 44.6365, "fair_value": 40.897308, "relative_strength": -5.233802, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.490496, "energy": 46.035176, "activity_lines": [ 49.786333, 49.647818, 47.836191, 46.137108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.369999, "volume": 22448, "typical_volume": 41268.05, "trend": 44.817, "fair_value": 41.032692, "relative_strength": -1.497297, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.468988, "energy": 48.995313, "activity_lines": [ 50.390333, 49.958, 48.376524, 46.571527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.810001, "volume": 30877, "typical_volume": 42045.6, "trend": 45.156833, "fair_value": 41.207468, "relative_strength": 5.780345, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.190525, "energy": 74.021075, "activity_lines": [ 52.538333, 51.199182, 49.38481, 47.345269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }