{ "ticker": { "uuid": "acb6b374-8e2a-4dea-9da9-b00e7fcf39d9", "symbol": "CL2", "name": "Amundi MSCI USA Daily (2x) Leveraged UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.168, "architecture_energy": 60.774, "architecture_maturity": 90.607, "architecture_confidence": 75.762, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.37, "rotation_up": 51.36, "upward_expansion": 81.02, "deceleration": 71.31, "rotation_down": 28.65, "downward_expansion": 10.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.023999, 30.816091, 30.017024, 28.770828 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 32.264999, "trend_reference": 27.324666, "distance_from_trend": 0.180801, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.462432, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.503324, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 16.127139, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.310786, "excess_performance": 0.257475, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.180801, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074949, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.503324, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092628, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.161271, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020013, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.310786, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.763449, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 149719, "relative_activity": 0.972567, "balance": 2.763449, "dry_up": 0.956502, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038003, "annualized_volatility": 0.232752, "from_high_reference": -0.008756, "from_low_reference": 0.481745 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.324666, "fair_value_reference": 21.462432, "structural_low": 22.15, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.019634, "positive_rate": 0.594595, "directional_follow_through": 0.594595, "median_excess_return": 0.006709, "regime_survival": 0.864865, "best_return": 0.137189, "worst_return": -0.173557, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.056211, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.062799, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.206553, "worst_return": -0.358377, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.106667, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.096288, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.340335, "worst_return": -0.204616, "sufficient": true }, { 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157669.25, "trend": 26.947667, "fair_value": 21.237079, "relative_strength": 15.826804, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.640192, "energy": 62.935384, "activity_lines": [ 30.767, 30.579727, 29.452048, 28.249548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.879999, "volume": 175602, "typical_volume": 155828.3, "trend": 27.1175, "fair_value": 21.341225, "relative_strength": 10.706457, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.368546, "energy": 53.084237, "activity_lines": [ 30.495, 30.480363, 29.634024, 28.438731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.264999, "volume": 149719, "typical_volume": 153942.15, "trend": 27.324666, "fair_value": 21.462432, "relative_strength": 16.127139, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.167627, "energy": 60.774385, "activity_lines": [ 31.023999, 30.816091, 30.017024, 28.770828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }