{ "ticker": { "uuid": "acbce814-e646-43ad-862e-6453d8d8c910", "symbol": "CHIP", "name": "Amundi MSCI Semiconductors UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.8, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.475, "architecture_energy": 25.141, "architecture_maturity": 74.281, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.14, "rotation_up": 19.66, "upward_expansion": 54.23, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 32.21, "downward_expansion": 20.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 108.709334, 111.501274, 109.750048, 103.513699 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 111.110001, "trend_reference": 95.291, "distance_from_trend": 0.166007, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 57.007756, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.949033, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 16.357147, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.447687, "excess_performance": 0.276796, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.166007, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.178027, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.949033, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166902, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.163571, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.207366, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.447687, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.29519, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44400, "relative_activity": 0.782224, "balance": 2.29519, "dry_up": 1.197623, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074964, "annualized_volatility": 0.346732, "from_high_reference": -0.102721, "from_low_reference": 0.994078 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 95.291, "fair_value_reference": 57.007756, "structural_low": 71.459999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.029749, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.010392, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.305412, "worst_return": -0.157088, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.111525, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.078925, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.593962, "worst_return": -0.140806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.191292, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.160158, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.505372, "worst_return": -0.050446, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086567, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.083883, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.181744, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.194296, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.28805, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": 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51531.85, "trend": 90.419334, "fair_value": 54.962852, "relative_strength": 28.369975, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.430107, "energy": 64.613128, "activity_lines": [ 117.408667, 115.642546, 106.792762, 99.486839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 106.860001, "volume": 72070, "typical_volume": 53053.9, "trend": 91.710667, "fair_value": 55.46782, "relative_strength": 18.367822, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.267795, "energy": 47.334419, "activity_lines": [ 113.792, 114.429273, 107.638762, 100.547527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 110.25, "volume": 43233, "typical_volume": 52943.7, "trend": 93.061, "fair_value": 55.985865, "relative_strength": 21.32617, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.868429, "energy": 36.83281, "activity_lines": [ 111.864667, 113.811273, 108.673, 101.743613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 103.480003, "volume": 112211, "typical_volume": 55715.5, "trend": 94.092667, "fair_value": 56.467628, "relative_strength": 12.378365, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.538409, "energy": 25.080295, "activity_lines": [ 108.557334, 111.909819, 108.910096, 102.415807 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 111.110001, "volume": 44400, "typical_volume": 56761.2, "trend": 95.291, "fair_value": 57.007756, "relative_strength": 16.357147, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.47521, "energy": 25.14074, "activity_lines": [ 108.709334, 111.501274, 109.750048, 103.513699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }