{ "ticker": { "uuid": "acbfae41-9bbd-49b2-959f-be62a0bdb389", "symbol": "601377", "name": "Industrial Securities Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.262, "architecture_energy": 17.852, "architecture_maturity": 23.82, "architecture_confidence": 64.666, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.66, "rotation_up": 22.33, "upward_expansion": 12.18, "deceleration": 44.66, "rotation_down": 30.93, "downward_expansion": 57.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.976688, 5.979094, 5.950683, 6.028595 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.89, "trend_reference": 6.216678, "distance_from_trend": -0.052549, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.974234, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.0141, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.161645, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.143895, "excess_performance": -0.100692, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.052549, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054321, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.0141, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028304, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081616, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06101, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.143895, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.251245, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 407871837, "relative_activity": 1.156097, "balance": 0.251245, "dry_up": 1.205868, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 8 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042858, "annualized_volatility": 0.170866, "from_high_reference": -0.256313, "from_low_reference": 0.048043 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.216678, "fair_value_reference": 5.974234, "structural_low": 5.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.030807, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.018965, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.239464, "worst_return": -0.090617, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.010661, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026468, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.229885, "worst_return": -0.256579, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.038726, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.059163, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.147065, "worst_return": -0.278509, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008389, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001608, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003135, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05541, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085173, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", 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5.939407, 5.957226, 6.120256 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.019836, "volume": 460645661, "typical_volume": 350950681.35, "trend": 6.362661, "fair_value": 5.973053, "relative_strength": -2.611391, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.186418, "energy": 14.473721, "activity_lines": [ 6.011104, 5.957377, 5.954591, 6.095769 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.980491, "volume": 440407392, "typical_volume": 348704984.1, "trend": 6.321344, "fair_value": 5.973673, "relative_strength": -4.300827, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.287226, "energy": 14.060994, "activity_lines": [ 6.013279, 5.968924, 5.951686, 6.071113 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.04, "volume": 392800214, "typical_volume": 350630411.75, "trend": 6.267678, "fair_value": 5.974434, "relative_strength": -3.494755, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.021189, "energy": 11.178358, "activity_lines": [ 6.02459, 5.989645, 5.957399, 6.052961 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.89, "volume": 407871837, "typical_volume": 352800748.35, "trend": 6.216678, "fair_value": 5.974234, "relative_strength": -8.161645, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.261937, "energy": 17.852483, "activity_lines": [ 5.976688, 5.979094, 5.950683, 6.028595 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }