{ "ticker": { "uuid": "acc17d2d-2dd2-42f5-a1e6-2213c8bd8949", "symbol": "PNNT", "name": "PennantPark Investment Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.258, "architecture_energy": 44.43, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 71.816, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.1, "rotation_up": 27.0, "upward_expansion": 18.54, "deceleration": 66.71, "rotation_down": 49.07, "downward_expansion": 73.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.436015, 3.416917, 3.622335, 3.828653 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.69, "trend_reference": 4.167354, "distance_from_trend": -0.114546, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.044652, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.268532, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.269587, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.288758, "excess_performance": -0.414382, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.114546, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136138, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.268532, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13364, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.322696, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043763, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.288758, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.199063, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2725775, "relative_activity": 0.757522, "balance": 0.199063, "dry_up": 0.820634, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075736, "annualized_volatility": 0.348508, "from_high_reference": -0.422366, "from_low_reference": 0.15674 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.167354, "fair_value_reference": 5.044652, "structural_low": 3.19, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.005876, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.034747, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.120459, "worst_return": -0.148499, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.063998, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.000326, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.21284, "worst_return": -0.163752, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.048121, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.004292, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.382845, "worst_return": -0.272801, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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64.80185, "activity_lines": [ 3.332093, 3.417112, 3.696805, 3.928448 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.29, "volume": 2657731, "typical_volume": 3745018.15, "trend": 4.22735, "fair_value": 5.049269, "relative_strength": -38.335252, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.158604, "energy": 61.705109, "activity_lines": [ 3.316698, 3.376746, 3.638084, 3.863321 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.69, "volume": 2725775, "typical_volume": 3598279.55, "trend": 4.167354, "fair_value": 5.044652, "relative_strength": -32.269587, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.258455, "energy": 44.430001, "activity_lines": [ 3.436015, 3.416917, 3.622335, 3.828653 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }