{ "ticker": { "uuid": "acc31f97-14c9-48d9-a5fe-cd366ebae963", "symbol": "BWLP", "name": "BW LPG Limited", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.518, "architecture_energy": 74.439, "architecture_maturity": 22.826, "architecture_confidence": 86.577, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.52, "rotation_up": 75.3, "upward_expansion": 92.45, "deceleration": 42.44, "rotation_down": 10.22, "downward_expansion": 16.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.66, 20.620693, 19.890187, 18.955185 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 21.75, "trend_reference": 17.606625, "distance_from_trend": 0.23533, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.573288, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.879328, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 28.114681, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.451092, "excess_performance": 0.325467, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.23533, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.197591, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.879328, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017242, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.281147, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046014, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.451092, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.36435, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1580301, "relative_activity": 0.785729, "balance": 2.36435, "dry_up": 0.778047, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085989, "annualized_volatility": 0.556789, "from_high_reference": -0.041428, "from_low_reference": 1.115071 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.606625, "fair_value_reference": 11.573288, "structural_low": 12.623804, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.052034, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.062786, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.655767, "worst_return": -0.180858, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.229882, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.150296, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.913989, "worst_return": -0.233657, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.358195, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.269402, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.374505, "worst_return": 0.056785, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.880003, "energy": 51.379886, "activity_lines": [ 20.256667, 19.719282, 19.195764, 18.303486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.56, "volume": 1398671, "typical_volume": 2060278.25, "trend": 17.287003, "fair_value": 11.468834, "relative_strength": 38.503204, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.630168, "energy": 76.832557, "activity_lines": [ 21.264, 20.259585, 19.604801, 18.66725 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.75, "volume": 1580301, "typical_volume": 2011255.1, "trend": 17.606625, "fair_value": 11.573288, "relative_strength": 28.114681, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.518285, "energy": 74.439341, "activity_lines": [ 21.66, 20.620693, 19.890187, 18.955185 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }