{ "ticker": { "uuid": "acc644fc-73a5-4d33-a7ec-226da1871bce", "symbol": "TLM", "name": "Talisman Mining Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.792, "architecture_energy": 30.264, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.454, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.55, "rotation_up": 26.32, "upward_expansion": 15.64, "deceleration": 46.77, "rotation_down": 37.29, "downward_expansion": 65.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.070533, 0.069636, 0.073452, 0.077611 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.071, "trend_reference": 0.084767, "distance_from_trend": -0.162407, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.168699, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.579131, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.926356, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.252632, "excess_performance": -0.316337, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.162407, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158226, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.579131, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088584, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.349264, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089302, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.252632, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.547402, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 205031, "relative_activity": 0.382805, "balance": 0.547402, "dry_up": 0.953827, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119177, "annualized_volatility": 0.49836, "from_high_reference": -0.582353, "from_low_reference": 0.314815 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.084767, "fair_value_reference": 0.168699, "structural_low": 0.054, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.009259, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.024185, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.285714, "worst_return": -0.304762, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.068966, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.066606, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.740741, "worst_return": -0.230769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.051724, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.127994, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.814815, "worst_return": -0.365385, "sufficient": true }, { 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{ "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116279, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.416667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.442308, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1875, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.252632, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.145, "volume": 797543, "typical_volume": 1218871.6, "trend": 0.157833, "fair_value": 0.150154, "relative_strength": -4.854301, "stage": 4, "regime": 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"typical_volume": 574816.55, "trend": 0.090433, "fair_value": 0.170301, "relative_strength": -38.896236, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.36075, "energy": 61.242225, "activity_lines": [ 0.0666, 0.069545, 0.075257, 0.080895 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.069, "volume": 41825, "typical_volume": 538629.6, "trend": 0.088733, "fair_value": 0.169686, "relative_strength": -34.97964, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.148116, "energy": 54.883651, "activity_lines": [ 0.066933, 0.068855, 0.074262, 0.079512 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.075, "volume": 1327881, "typical_volume": 563490.55, "trend": 0.086733, "fair_value": 0.169173, "relative_strength": -30.132661, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.413963, "energy": 39.634099, "activity_lines": [ 0.069533, 0.069527, 0.07401, 0.078626 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.071, "volume": 205031, "typical_volume": 535602.35, "trend": 0.084767, "fair_value": 0.168699, "relative_strength": -34.926356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.79222, "energy": 30.263762, "activity_lines": [ 0.070533, 0.069636, 0.073452, 0.077611 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }