{ "ticker": { "uuid": "acce6015-c1ac-43b9-a059-bd0b3b15bee1", "symbol": "JEGA", "name": "JPM Global Equity Premium Income Active UCITS ETF - USD (acc)", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 88.482, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 56.22, "architecture_energy": 78.203, "architecture_maturity": 6.196, "architecture_confidence": 67.485, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.45, "rotation_up": 83.79, "upward_expansion": 63.44, "deceleration": 13.62, "rotation_down": 14.03, "downward_expansion": 31.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.682334, 31.356273, 31.068929, 31.141065 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 32.145, "trend_reference": 31.286334, "distance_from_trend": 0.027445, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.133152, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.103382, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.530237, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.007996, "excess_performance": -0.074887, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.027445, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003641, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.103382, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047032, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.065302, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02535, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007996, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.354001, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 230, "relative_activity": 0.359684, "balance": 0.354001, "dry_up": 0.645086, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010649, "annualized_volatility": 0.085126, "from_high_reference": -0.020716, "from_low_reference": 0.076524 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.286334, "fair_value_reference": 29.133152, "structural_low": 30.275, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.034087, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005016, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000327, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02219, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013558, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-12-22", "close": 25.42, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-12-29", "close": 25.665001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-01-05", "close": 25.969999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-01-12", "close": 25.889999, 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220, "typical_volume": 685.85, "trend": 31.218667, "fair_value": 29.075482, "relative_strength": -8.504363, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 8.427678, "energy": 26.798437, "activity_lines": [ 31.075, 30.860182, 30.850405, 31.044947 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.325001, "volume": 1200, "typical_volume": 695.8, "trend": 31.228334, "fair_value": 29.092022, "relative_strength": -7.992221, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 12.56996, "energy": 35.741611, "activity_lines": [ 31.212334, 30.970364, 30.882119, 31.051807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.715, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 645.95, "trend": 31.248167, "fair_value": 29.111168, "relative_strength": -6.746267, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.599863, "energy": 60.527874, "activity_lines": [ 31.409667, 31.133455, 30.954953, 31.083205 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.145, "volume": 230, "typical_volume": 639.45, "trend": 31.286334, "fair_value": 29.133152, "relative_strength": -6.530237, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 56.220301, "energy": 78.203091, "activity_lines": [ 31.682334, 31.356273, 31.068929, 31.141065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }