{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "acd29f73-6c95-4ffb-94b5-ed8fd406979f",
    "symbol": "VNM",
    "name": "VanEck Vietnam ETF",
    "exchange": "MEX",
    "country": "MX",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^MXX",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 49.969,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 66.675,
    "architecture_energy": 87.289,
    "architecture_maturity": 10.435,
    "architecture_confidence": 72.209,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 32.45,
        "rotation_up": 77.36,
        "upward_expansion": 95.32,
        "deceleration": 44.67,
        "rotation_down": 8.49,
        "downward_expansion": 21.99
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        336.649994,
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        324.773522,
        320.480988
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 336.649994,
    "trend_reference": 318.965667,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.055443,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 264.724368,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.2717,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 0.893394,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.065753,
    "excess_performance": 0.12042,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.055443,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.009023,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.2717,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.106297,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.008934,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.13237,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.065753,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.475,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 0,
      "relative_activity": 0.0,
      "balance": 0.475,
      "dry_up": 0.0,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.01735,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.207754,
      "from_high_reference": -0.05169,
      "from_low_reference": 0.145068
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 318.965667,
      "fair_value_reference": 264.724368,
      "structural_low": 294.0,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.01286,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.028592,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
        "best_return": 0.068188,
        "worst_return": -0.047567,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.065825,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.101944,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.094581,
        "worst_return": 0.03707,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.014463,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.007809,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": -0.006378,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.19097,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.145742,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
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        "worst_return": -0.022518,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "end": "2024-08-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-11-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.03707,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-28",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.024016,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.039934,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-10-31",
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        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-01-30",
        "end": "2026-02-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.012875,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "start": "2026-03-06",
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        "return": -0.053438,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -6.233361,
        "energy": 26.756961,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 330.899994,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 933.55,
        "trend": 322.080473,
        "fair_value": 258.008239,
        "relative_strength": -1.30385,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": 20.199676,
        "energy": 45.095107,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "volume": 781,
        "typical_volume": 741.5,
        "trend": 321.869914,
        "fair_value": 258.711939,
        "relative_strength": -2.72573,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 46.613166,
        "energy": 60.944558,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 328.0,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 726.6,
        "trend": 321.659355,
        "fair_value": 259.41564,
        "relative_strength": 0.595716,
        "stage": 4,
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        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 35.514804,
        "energy": 57.353066,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "volume": 19,
        "typical_volume": 727.3,
        "trend": 321.020796,
        "fair_value": 260.037033,
        "relative_strength": -6.044059,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 29.302693,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 723.75,
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        "fair_value": 260.574294,
        "relative_strength": -5.794549,
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        "direction": 27.398762,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 673.1,
        "trend": 319.743678,
        "fair_value": 261.111554,
        "relative_strength": -5.263572,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -10.431742,
        "energy": 16.943303,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 315.160004,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 672.5,
        "trend": 319.105119,
        "fair_value": 261.648815,
        "relative_strength": -5.190715,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -21.365825,
        "energy": 35.210336,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 336.649994,
        "volume": 79,
        "typical_volume": 676.45,
        "trend": 319.182893,
        "fair_value": 262.323832,
        "relative_strength": 1.858754,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 56.531042,
        "energy": 36.693161,
        "activity_lines": [
          322.323334,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 336.649994,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 676.45,
        "trend": 319.260667,
        "fair_value": 262.960706,
        "relative_strength": 1.388567,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 60.071018,
        "energy": 66.482043,
        "activity_lines": [
          328.053998,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 336.649994,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 676.45,
        "trend": 319.315667,
        "fair_value": 263.59758,
        "relative_strength": 1.474297,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 54.465887,
        "energy": 82.261195,
        "activity_lines": [
          332.351996,
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          320.665475,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 336.649994,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 676.45,
        "trend": 319.370667,
        "fair_value": 264.160974,
        "relative_strength": 0.724887,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 45.968941,
        "energy": 80.531522,
        "activity_lines": [
          335.217328,
          329.145089,
          322.768951,
          319.366193
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 336.649994,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 68.6,
        "trend": 318.965667,
        "fair_value": 264.724368,
        "relative_strength": 0.893394,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.674754,
        "energy": 87.289177,
        "activity_lines": [
          336.649994,
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          324.773522,
          320.480988
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}