{ "ticker": { "uuid": "acd4f2f6-d8aa-4fb7-a228-a9f0e267847f", "symbol": "AXOLOT", "name": "Axolot Solutions Holding AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.036, "architecture_energy": 22.024, "architecture_maturity": 55.95, "architecture_confidence": 80.32, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.82, "rotation_up": 24.71, "upward_expansion": 14.08, "deceleration": 45.29, "rotation_down": 29.33, "downward_expansion": 59.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.291067, 0.288873, 0.297733, 0.310811 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.29, "trend_reference": 0.3244, "distance_from_trend": -0.106042, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.368547, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.213127, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.031732, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.055375, "excess_performance": -0.116869, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.106042, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041654, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.213127, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052748, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.280317, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013053, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.055375, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.748155, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1273523, "relative_activity": 0.860978, "balance": 0.748155, "dry_up": 0.83979, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115385, "annualized_volatility": 0.402592, "from_high_reference": -0.468864, "from_low_reference": 0.137255 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.3244, "fair_value_reference": 0.368547, "structural_low": 0.255, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.014628, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00321, "regime_survival": 0.84375, "best_return": 0.290323, "worst_return": -0.384269, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.10355, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.076843, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.513514, "worst_return": -0.409598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.166771, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.115629, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.448529, "worst_return": -0.393443, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.235656, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.219655, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.316129, "worst_return": -0.375253, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.253659, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.160216, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.139706, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.188679, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.29108, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.16699, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.292683, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.014706, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.16777, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": 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-55.211713, "energy": 37.90632, "activity_lines": [ 0.286333, 0.288873, 0.305176, 0.31752 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.296, "volume": 539356, "typical_volume": 1492713.5, "trend": 0.3264, "fair_value": 0.369361, "relative_strength": -26.13867, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.336488, "energy": 29.345385, "activity_lines": [ 0.2904, 0.289364, 0.302714, 0.315548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.289, "volume": 2290056, "typical_volume": 1530990.65, "trend": 0.326033, "fair_value": 0.3689, "relative_strength": -27.778313, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.3897, "energy": 23.982336, "activity_lines": [ 0.290533, 0.288709, 0.299981, 0.313135 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.29, "volume": 1273523, "typical_volume": 1479158.3, "trend": 0.3244, "fair_value": 0.368547, "relative_strength": -28.031732, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.036002, "energy": 22.024122, "activity_lines": [ 0.291067, 0.288873, 0.297733, 0.310811 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }