{ "ticker": { "uuid": "acda54e1-7d69-4387-ac1b-e0fcf36443c4", "symbol": "600266", "name": "Beijing Urban Construction Investment & Development Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.358, "architecture_energy": 57.117, "architecture_maturity": 63.084, "architecture_confidence": 93.784, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 26.64, "upward_expansion": 10.11, "deceleration": 59.43, "rotation_down": 53.71, "downward_expansion": 83.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.985697, 4.013347, 4.301483, 4.553976 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.03, "trend_reference": 4.977591, "distance_from_trend": -0.190371, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.913175, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.179756, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.331603, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.282918, "excess_performance": -0.239714, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.190371, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043629, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.179756, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.243507, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.183316, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146121, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.282918, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.834401, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 131839342, "relative_activity": 0.906978, "balance": 0.834401, "dry_up": 1.122199, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076078, "annualized_volatility": 0.288719, "from_high_reference": -0.462667, "from_low_reference": 0.05955 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.977591, "fair_value_reference": 4.913175, "structural_low": 3.803502, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.039719, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.025468, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.228792, "worst_return": -0.130612, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.060608, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.05326, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.225989, "worst_return": -0.205184, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.046396, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.019454, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.231181, "worst_return": -0.118791, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -19.976663, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.912154, "energy": 88.747879, "activity_lines": [ 3.952807, 4.156488, 4.492649, 4.754099 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.852899, "volume": 180030491, "typical_volume": 153739825.3, "trend": 5.024928, "fair_value": 4.926981, "relative_strength": -20.040089, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.202627, "energy": 80.04095, "activity_lines": [ 3.905443, 4.065471, 4.408569, 4.677028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.099879, "volume": 167286610, "typical_volume": 151447604.45, "trend": 5.012258, "fair_value": 4.921477, "relative_strength": -14.924533, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.858919, "energy": 62.199852, "activity_lines": [ 3.963546, 4.040033, 4.355234, 4.617347 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.03, "volume": 131839342, "typical_volume": 145361046.5, "trend": 4.977591, "fair_value": 4.913175, "relative_strength": -18.331603, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.357749, "energy": 57.11711, "activity_lines": [ 3.985697, 4.013347, 4.301483, 4.553976 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }