{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ace8ef63-cf87-41bf-88e2-64d4a872b831", "symbol": "300607", "name": "Guangdong Topstar Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -2.313, "architecture_energy": 21.753, "architecture_maturity": 75.31, "architecture_confidence": 82.795, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.05, "rotation_up": 14.82, "upward_expansion": 23.27, "deceleration": 76.13, "rotation_down": 59.24, "downward_expansion": 33.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.513333, 34.877818, 34.196292, 32.826463 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 33.41, "trend_reference": 31.702007, "distance_from_trend": 0.053876, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.070019, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.388034, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.36769, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.107081, "excess_performance": 0.099681, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053876, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062988, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.388034, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03061, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.003677, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.20696, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.107081, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.32149, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 170958344, "relative_activity": 1.515649, "balance": 1.32149, "dry_up": 1.421635, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.187114, "annualized_volatility": 0.83295, "from_high_reference": -0.390773, "from_low_reference": 0.392378 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.702007, "fair_value_reference": 24.070019, "structural_low": 23.994923, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.010027, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.028964, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.151245, "worst_return": -0.24351, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.058185, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.029038, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.215, "worst_return": -0.247132, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.006839, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.108273, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.136667, "worst_return": -0.219072, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.815445, "energy": 78.842757, "activity_lines": [ 42.224, 38.744582, 34.623022, 33.058542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.060001, "volume": 174018521, "typical_volume": 95967976.65, "trend": 31.734132, "fair_value": 23.750406, "relative_strength": -1.542564, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.714891, "energy": 45.599575, "activity_lines": [ 39.427334, 37.949406, 34.645307, 33.086469 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.92, "volume": 140066091, "typical_volume": 100542324.8, "trend": 31.740764, "fair_value": 23.835645, "relative_strength": -13.939283, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.097484, "energy": 18.357342, "activity_lines": [ 35.269333, 36.392722, 34.264584, 32.840396 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.799999, "volume": 156372740, "typical_volume": 106473739.15, "trend": 31.685194, "fair_value": 23.938358, "relative_strength": -6.145352, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.138631, "energy": 21.63553, "activity_lines": [ 32.464, 35.271045, 34.063721, 32.715185 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.41, "volume": 170958344, "typical_volume": 112795461.0, "trend": 31.702007, "fair_value": 24.070019, "relative_strength": 0.36769, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.312662, "energy": 21.752999, "activity_lines": [ 31.513333, 34.877818, 34.196292, 32.826463 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }