{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "acefeb4a-3dd3-4514-bd48-21204cc0e7de",
    "symbol": "PFEB",
    "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Power Buffer ETF - February",
    "exchange": "CBOE",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 55.457,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 86.548,
    "architecture_energy": 77.744,
    "architecture_maturity": 42.186,
    "architecture_confidence": 81.301,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 9.56,
        "rotation_up": 65.3,
        "upward_expansion": 91.18,
        "deceleration": 48.56,
        "rotation_down": 25.14,
        "downward_expansion": 15.51
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        43.411487,
        43.228518,
        42.934085,
        42.460537
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 43.8448,
    "trend_reference": 41.91884,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.045945,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 36.898999,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.188238,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -4.788169,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.063678,
    "excess_performance": -0.061947,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.045945,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.022151,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.188238,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.000905,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.047882,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.000168,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.063678,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.236353,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 236244,
      "relative_activity": 1.544099,
      "balance": 2.236353,
      "dry_up": 0.941176,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.009754,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.06702,
      "from_high_reference": -0.000461,
      "from_low_reference": 0.138826
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 41.91884,
      "fair_value_reference": 36.898999,
      "structural_low": 39.2648,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 46,
        "median_return": 0.006937,
        "positive_rate": 0.76087,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.76087,
        "median_excess_return": -0.003414,
        "regime_survival": 0.869565,
        "best_return": 0.03487,
        "worst_return": -0.031076,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 16,
        "median_return": 0.025324,
        "positive_rate": 0.8125,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8125,
        "median_excess_return": -0.021429,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.065741,
        "worst_return": -0.04489,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 9,
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.888889,
        "median_excess_return": -0.017685,
        "regime_survival": 0.777778,
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        "worst_return": -0.007358,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.03685,
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        "best_return": 0.144687,
        "worst_return": 0.002312,
        "sufficient": false
      }
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      {
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "relative_strength": -4.201424,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 162011.4,
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        "fair_value": 36.660724,
        "relative_strength": -3.008347,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 65.182515,
        "energy": 73.305227,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 43.0461,
        "volume": 114265,
        "typical_volume": 154838.05,
        "trend": 41.73753,
        "fair_value": 36.736596,
        "relative_strength": -2.459393,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 63.930642,
        "energy": 70.430545,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 43.33,
        "volume": 132072,
        "typical_volume": 149491.55,
        "trend": 41.822197,
        "fair_value": 36.816212,
        "relative_strength": -2.751722,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 72.215197,
        "energy": 70.501315,
        "activity_lines": [
          43.1833,
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          42.782535,
          42.330047
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 43.8448,
        "volume": 236244,
        "typical_volume": 152997.95,
        "trend": 41.91884,
        "fair_value": 36.898999,
        "relative_strength": -4.788169,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 86.547954,
        "energy": 77.744338,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}