{ "ticker": { "uuid": "acfb89dc-8284-4352-b38a-814d3a332633", "symbol": "AG1", "name": "AUTO1 Group SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 84.142, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.82, "architecture_energy": 20.688, "architecture_maturity": 60.007, "architecture_confidence": 70.793, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.45, "rotation_up": 30.92, "upward_expansion": 64.76, "deceleration": 85.11, "rotation_down": 26.4, "downward_expansion": 14.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.113334, 23.686545, 22.672809, 21.604107 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.780001, "trend_reference": 21.344333, "distance_from_trend": 0.020411, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.786647, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.379647, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.838875, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.11102, "excess_performance": -0.17566, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020411, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036098, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.379647, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.173757, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.158389, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130245, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.11102, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.559218, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2238093, "relative_activity": 1.065213, "balance": 1.559218, "dry_up": 1.00855, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122448, "annualized_volatility": 0.667856, "from_high_reference": -0.308571, "from_low_reference": 0.506224 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.344333, "fair_value_reference": 15.786647, "structural_low": 14.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.024401, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015647, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.266843, "worst_return": -0.249016, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.096696, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.074665, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.178649, "worst_return": -0.176673, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.247167, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.250015, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.24764, "worst_return": -0.293799, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.093106, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130526, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057543, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.118091, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086093, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06564, "active": false 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}, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 25.379999, "volume": 1489589, "typical_volume": 2843519.3, "trend": 21.963, "fair_value": 15.420276, "relative_strength": 1.625082, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.234235, "energy": 62.679152, "activity_lines": [ 24.682666, 23.645636, 21.544285, 21.203419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.379999, "volume": 1400123, "typical_volume": 2384584.5, "trend": 21.919, "fair_value": 15.521494, "relative_strength": 2.579453, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.698967, "energy": 60.186399, "activity_lines": [ 25.026666, 24.170545, 22.072571, 21.423871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.780001, "volume": 1516270, "typical_volume": 2233940.9, "trend": 21.805667, "fair_value": 15.611147, "relative_strength": -4.763755, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.255487, "energy": 48.534295, "activity_lines": [ 24.7, 24.262545, 22.409524, 21.543935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.58, "volume": 3321677, "typical_volume": 2208977.2, "trend": 21.621667, "fair_value": 15.698558, "relative_strength": -11.018986, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.011888, "energy": 24.384979, "activity_lines": [ 24.014667, 24.056363, 22.59419, 21.593892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.780001, "volume": 2238093, "typical_volume": 2101076.35, "trend": 21.344333, "fair_value": 15.786647, "relative_strength": -15.838875, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.820392, "energy": 20.687987, "activity_lines": [ 23.113334, 23.686545, 22.672809, 21.604107 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }