{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad009c8d-7ae1-41a9-a37f-bb3e27993e38", "symbol": "5202", "name": "NewSoft Technology Corporation", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.821, "architecture_energy": 58.522, "architecture_maturity": 13.336, "architecture_confidence": 84.01, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.09, "rotation_up": 9.28, "upward_expansion": 11.86, "deceleration": 38.43, "rotation_down": 68.01, "downward_expansion": 85.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.236667, 13.014545, 13.37619, 13.530108 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.3, "trend_reference": 13.925, "distance_from_trend": -0.116697, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.064684, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.354828, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -46.343739, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.16041, "excess_performance": -0.601782, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116697, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066063, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.354828, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014197, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.463437, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096717, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.16041, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.859149, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 643531, "relative_activity": 0.260204, "balance": 0.859149, "dry_up": 0.455861, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.145091, "annualized_volatility": 0.527926, "from_high_reference": -0.460839, "from_low_reference": 0.098214 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.925, "fair_value_reference": 19.064684, "structural_low": 11.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.022765, "positive_rate": 0.346154, "directional_follow_through": 0.653846, "median_excess_return": -0.048569, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.253623, "worst_return": -0.141892, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.002688, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.212634, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.194553, "worst_return": -0.218845, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.023341, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.131796, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.555556, "worst_return": -0.227658, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": -48.412073, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.567676, "energy": 40.246718, "activity_lines": [ 12.773333, 13.65, 13.613571, 13.766667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.25, "volume": 1349750, "typical_volume": 2486756.85, "trend": 14.041667, "fair_value": 19.079591, "relative_strength": -45.898049, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.54248, "energy": 49.628518, "activity_lines": [ 12.393333, 13.328182, 13.487143, 13.642473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 12.3, "volume": 643531, "typical_volume": 2473179.95, "trend": 13.925, "fair_value": 19.064684, "relative_strength": -46.343739, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.820874, "energy": 58.522319, "activity_lines": [ 12.236667, 13.014545, 13.37619, 13.530108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }