{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad040024-ed5c-4e64-adbb-4e866ece78b5", "symbol": "HERU", "name": "Global X Video Games & Esports UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.268, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 16.381, "architecture_energy": 24.273, "architecture_maturity": 17.117, "architecture_confidence": 67.353, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.39, "rotation_up": 44.98, "upward_expansion": 33.72, "deceleration": 44.37, "rotation_down": 17.05, "downward_expansion": 44.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.933733, 10.710073, 10.671838, 10.739905 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.38, "trend_reference": 10.954667, "distance_from_trend": 0.038827, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.722468, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.061323, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.00366, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.007793, "excess_performance": -0.163099, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038827, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052047, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.061323, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029675, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.180037, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046817, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007793, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.097785, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2163, "relative_activity": 1.880951, "balance": 2.097785, "dry_up": 1.929649, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035312, "annualized_volatility": 0.267762, "from_high_reference": -0.182236, "from_low_reference": 0.152522 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.954667, "fair_value_reference": 10.722468, "structural_low": 9.874, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.002474, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008237, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.055923, "worst_return": -0.06081, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.000889, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.028094, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.110251, "worst_return": -0.017423, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.080563, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.05806, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.177677, "worst_return": -0.01655, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.147121, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.010088, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.300683, "worst_return": -0.006442, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033722, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000663, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052784, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068679, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.180024, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016519, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060746, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063126, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095741, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.058709, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083742, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051787, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.060317, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8.51, "volume": 1010, "typical_volume": 1797.05, "trend": 8.9395, "fair_value": 10.169783, "relative_strength": -12.880246, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.38824, "energy": 63.189729, "activity_lines": [ 10.349867, 10.453636, 10.625762, 10.831815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.688, "volume": 1592, "typical_volume": 970.75, "trend": 11.129533, "fair_value": 10.675359, "relative_strength": -23.979012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.644082, "energy": 42.251257, "activity_lines": [ 10.444, 10.477127, 10.619829, 10.800323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.506, "volume": 753, "typical_volume": 964.95, "trend": 11.078133, "fair_value": 10.684622, "relative_strength": -23.530777, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.923806, "energy": 33.16719, "activity_lines": [ 10.493867, 10.471018, 10.59901, 10.760095 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.138, "volume": 512, "typical_volume": 874.15, "trend": 11.017067, "fair_value": 10.690135, "relative_strength": -25.430016, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.223302, "energy": 37.372832, "activity_lines": [ 10.400667, 10.405527, 10.546714, 10.699441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.248, "volume": 5448, "typical_volume": 1129.55, "trend": 10.983733, "fair_value": 10.704647, "relative_strength": -17.219473, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.758394, "energy": 10.709884, "activity_lines": [ 10.687867, 10.552436, 10.6032, 10.71434 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.38, "volume": 2163, "typical_volume": 1149.95, "trend": 10.954667, "fair_value": 10.722468, "relative_strength": -18.00366, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 16.381044, "energy": 24.273226, "activity_lines": [ 10.933733, 10.710073, 10.671838, 10.739905 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }