{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad05b752-7704-4d42-91df-e665de25ef70", "symbol": "JZCP", "name": "JZ Capital Partners Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 56.623, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -9.563, "architecture_energy": 8.425, "architecture_maturity": 26.384, "architecture_confidence": 70.863, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 68.96, "rotation_up": 31.96, "upward_expansion": 33.18, "deceleration": 41.52, "rotation_down": 24.16, "downward_expansion": 41.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 174.066667, 173.472727, 173.12619, 173.758065 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 175.0, "trend_reference": 175.933333, "distance_from_trend": -0.005305, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 188.653846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.072375, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.278799, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.048913, "excess_performance": -0.115192, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005305, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028976, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.072375, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026384, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.122788, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065593, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.048913, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 19.880376, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4777, "relative_activity": 0.528087, "balance": 19.880376, "dry_up": 2.216431, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043305, "annualized_volatility": 0.201637, "from_high_reference": -0.142157, "from_low_reference": 0.080247 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 175.933333, "fair_value_reference": 188.653846, "structural_low": 162.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.26087, "directional_follow_through": 0.26087, "median_excess_return": -0.019498, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.190476, "worst_return": -0.046154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.025597, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.236923, "worst_return": -0.044118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.044118, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.066334, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.224615, "worst_return": -0.183673, 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0.035176, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065116, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023697, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039216, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090426, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": 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176.304301 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 174.0, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 5087.0, "trend": 179.533333, "fair_value": 188.176282, "relative_strength": -12.638666, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.190209, "energy": 13.704911, "activity_lines": [ 173.866667, 173.009091, 173.464286, 175.912903 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 174.0, "volume": 3894, "typical_volume": 5232.95, "trend": 179.033333, "fair_value": 188.298077, "relative_strength": -13.247836, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.771141, "energy": 12.954436, "activity_lines": [ 174.0, 173.263636, 173.359524, 175.555914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 174.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5232.95, "trend": 178.533333, "fair_value": 188.435897, "relative_strength": -14.034067, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.519632, "energy": 9.660753, "activity_lines": [ 174.0, 173.518182, 173.302381, 175.231183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 166.0, "volume": 4790, "typical_volume": 5414.1, "trend": 177.766667, "fair_value": 188.458333, "relative_strength": -15.966472, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.591705, "energy": 37.251074, "activity_lines": [ 171.333333, 172.272727, 172.530952, 174.422581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 174.0, "volume": 39879, "typical_volume": 7311.85, "trend": 177.3, "fair_value": 188.483974, "relative_strength": -12.198327, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.434774, "energy": 22.446658, "activity_lines": [ 171.866667, 172.581818, 172.607143, 174.17957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 174.0, "volume": 12154, "typical_volume": 7793.75, "trend": 176.833333, "fair_value": 188.509615, "relative_strength": -12.696989, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.40549, "energy": 16.22802, "activity_lines": [ 172.4, 172.8, 172.721429, 173.966667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 175.0, "volume": 23388, "typical_volume": 8813.2, "trend": 176.4, "fair_value": 188.573718, "relative_strength": -12.640496, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.832025, "energy": 8.982823, "activity_lines": [ 173.266667, 173.163636, 172.911905, 173.848387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 175.0, "volume": 4777, "typical_volume": 9045.85, "trend": 175.933333, "fair_value": 188.653846, "relative_strength": -12.278799, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.563239, "energy": 8.425316, "activity_lines": [ 174.066667, 173.472727, 173.12619, 173.758065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }