{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad0d09d2-1253-42aa-a1a4-f3a7face345b", "symbol": "605136", "name": "Shanghai Lily&Beauty Cosmetics Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.806, "architecture_energy": 44.828, "architecture_maturity": 85.42, "architecture_confidence": 63.838, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.32, "rotation_up": 27.25, "upward_expansion": 19.7, "deceleration": 66.99, "rotation_down": 42.35, "downward_expansion": 69.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.784667, 7.667455, 8.404048, 8.976667 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.23, "trend_reference": 9.798333, "distance_from_trend": -0.160061, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.025141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.088103, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.589637, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.297782, "excess_performance": -0.254578, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.160061, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091682, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.088103, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.266361, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.175896, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11844, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.297782, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.722763, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46357136, "relative_activity": 1.395049, "balance": 0.722763, "dry_up": 1.595213, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094308, "annualized_volatility": 0.363826, "from_high_reference": -0.419605, "from_low_reference": 0.185879 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.798333, "fair_value_reference": 9.025141, "structural_low": 6.94, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.005803, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.021769, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.700521, "worst_return": -0.294239, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.112701, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.036148, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.502899, "worst_return": -0.220931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.021118, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.036944, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.446377, "worst_return": -0.361095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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7.43, "volume": 50560400, "typical_volume": 30720048.75, "trend": 10.172667, "fair_value": 9.092718, "relative_strength": -23.421226, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.072133, "energy": 85.214802, "activity_lines": [ 7.372667, 7.850545, 8.819667, 9.407763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.06, "volume": 41328500, "typical_volume": 30414086.05, "trend": 9.990333, "fair_value": 9.066148, "relative_strength": -27.673718, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.197105, "energy": 68.830785, "activity_lines": [ 7.256, 7.602364, 8.597, 9.206946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.08, "volume": 73788160, "typical_volume": 32558202.9, "trend": 9.889, "fair_value": 9.046942, "relative_strength": -17.229732, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.080507, "energy": 59.963721, "activity_lines": [ 7.526667, 7.604182, 8.488143, 9.083699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.23, "volume": 46357136, "typical_volume": 33229758.75, "trend": 9.798333, "fair_value": 9.025141, "relative_strength": -17.589637, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.806164, "energy": 44.828471, "activity_lines": [ 7.784667, 7.667455, 8.404048, 8.976667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }