{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad0f25d6-de00-4158-a16c-a2684d194ca4", "symbol": "002343", "name": "Ciwen Media Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.548, "architecture_energy": 39.519, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.15, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.0, "rotation_up": 27.31, "upward_expansion": 18.36, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 37.3, "downward_expansion": 66.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.826667, 4.752182, 5.063095, 5.446753 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.11, "trend_reference": 6.02, "distance_from_trend": -0.151163, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.759295, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.244004, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.400235, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.318667, "excess_performance": -0.326066, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.151163, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.244004, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140165, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.284002, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044185, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.318667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.452961, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55707934, "relative_activity": 1.138027, "balance": 0.452961, "dry_up": 1.520163, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094385, "annualized_volatility": 0.335735, "from_high_reference": -0.46604, "from_low_reference": 0.199531 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.02, "fair_value_reference": 6.759295, "structural_low": 4.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.009785, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.002855, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.302711, "worst_return": -0.196203, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.020465, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.029089, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.376451, "worst_return": -0.270479, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.153082, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.122991, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.245902, "worst_return": -0.340782, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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6.810705, "relative_strength": -34.504161, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.688755, "energy": 65.066823, "activity_lines": [ 4.649333, 4.792, 5.28481, 5.712 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.33, "volume": 74185856, "typical_volume": 46749538.65, "trend": 6.158, "fair_value": 6.792564, "relative_strength": -38.68058, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.435955, "energy": 67.196848, "activity_lines": [ 4.546667, 4.671091, 5.155857, 5.587806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.95, "volume": 66556474, "typical_volume": 48021470.35, "trend": 6.088333, "fair_value": 6.774487, "relative_strength": -27.983044, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.856212, "energy": 53.432438, "activity_lines": [ 4.678, 4.691818, 5.097905, 5.509871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.11, "volume": 55707934, "typical_volume": 48951338.65, "trend": 6.02, "fair_value": 6.759295, "relative_strength": -28.400235, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.547978, "energy": 39.519134, "activity_lines": [ 4.826667, 4.752182, 5.063095, 5.446753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }