{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad127971-63e8-4023-b57f-3250a8f878c8", "symbol": "ESPO", "name": "VanEck Video Gaming and eSports UCITS ETF A USD", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 52.038, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 59.845, "architecture_energy": 67.439, "architecture_maturity": 8.143, "architecture_confidence": 53.859, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.48, "rotation_up": 74.83, "upward_expansion": 63.32, "deceleration": 21.18, "rotation_down": 16.71, "downward_expansion": 21.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.083333, 53.078363, 52.177857, 52.038365 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 56.5, "trend_reference": 52.471167, "distance_from_trend": 0.076782, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 47.870737, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.180262, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.463337, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.070076, "excess_performance": -0.100816, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076782, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049275, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.180262, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080075, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.154633, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086084, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.070076, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.713082, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37198, "relative_activity": 1.037634, "balance": 0.713082, "dry_up": 1.540482, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030953, "annualized_volatility": 0.206248, "from_high_reference": -0.169362, "from_low_reference": 0.146975 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.471167, "fair_value_reference": 47.870737, "structural_low": 49.259998, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.019795, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.031963, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.087024, "worst_return": -0.025302, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.084372, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.027652, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.146123, "worst_return": 0.022621, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.165486, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.065163, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.238647, "worst_return": 0.092326, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "green", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.065381, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.088288, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.375376, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061835, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.117443, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"down", "direction": -23.465127, "energy": 16.160987, "activity_lines": [ 51.164, 50.932454, 51.122214, 51.824376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 53.52, "volume": 21686, "typical_volume": 30202.9, "trend": 53.174167, "fair_value": 47.329199, "relative_strength": -20.520475, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.751877, "energy": 14.297283, "activity_lines": [ 52.030333, 51.408727, 51.331143, 51.834796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 52.66, "volume": 39064, "typical_volume": 30530.85, "trend": 52.965167, "fair_value": 47.457628, "relative_strength": -20.11861, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.765975, "energy": 19.453529, "activity_lines": [ 52.419334, 51.693364, 51.451119, 51.801624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 51.849998, "volume": 47842, "typical_volume": 30892.1, "trend": 52.7445, "fair_value": 47.574455, "relative_strength": -20.680046, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.339442, "energy": 22.876121, "activity_lines": [ 52.378333, 51.798181, 51.492952, 51.729677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.59, "volume": 96794, "typical_volume": 34746.05, "trend": 52.560833, "fair_value": 47.709038, "relative_strength": -18.023096, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.842973, "energy": 39.52994, "activity_lines": [ 52.869999, 52.199545, 51.697785, 51.784226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.5, "volume": 37198, "typical_volume": 35848.85, "trend": 52.471167, "fair_value": 47.870737, "relative_strength": -15.463337, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 59.845179, "energy": 67.438537, "activity_lines": [ 54.083333, 53.078363, 52.177857, 52.038365 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }