{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad1b9d20-d097-46c3-b8e0-616d07d6849d", "symbol": "SDUS", "name": "iShares MSCI USA Screened UCITS ETF USD (Dist)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.41, "architecture_energy": 58.082, "architecture_maturity": 62.057, "architecture_confidence": 71.609, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.56, "rotation_up": 52.1, "upward_expansion": 79.64, "deceleration": 68.85, "rotation_down": 27.51, "downward_expansion": 8.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.430933, 14.357413, 14.223389, 13.929984 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.857, "trend_reference": 13.601433, "distance_from_trend": 0.092311, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.115699, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.336578, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.35192, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.136899, "excess_performance": 0.085664, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092311, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03277, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.336578, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008264, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.033519, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019239, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.136899, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.495782, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1135589, "relative_activity": 0.965334, "balance": 2.495782, "dry_up": 0.768286, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021281, "annualized_volatility": 0.140434, "from_high_reference": -0.002886, "from_low_reference": 0.235201 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.601433, "fair_value_reference": 11.115699, "structural_low": 12.028, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.011511, "positive_rate": 0.717949, "directional_follow_through": 0.717949, "median_excess_return": 0.008146, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.065777, "worst_return": -0.096713, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.036288, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.008863, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.145958, "worst_return": -0.077815, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.073309, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.027316, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.175221, "worst_return": -0.16497, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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13.878351, 13.637532 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.45, "volume": 1088628, "typical_volume": 1549610.95, "trend": 13.443533, "fair_value": 10.958266, "relative_strength": 4.44136, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.483411, "energy": 59.240456, "activity_lines": [ 14.306736, 14.293373, 13.966856, 13.70544 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.27, "volume": 1089312, "typical_volume": 1433262.25, "trend": 13.483233, "fair_value": 10.996691, "relative_strength": 2.111675, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.70669, "energy": 54.564184, "activity_lines": [ 14.305467, 14.294187, 14.031456, 13.75876 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.191, "volume": 824983, "typical_volume": 1382348.05, "trend": 13.515066, "fair_value": 11.03419, "relative_strength": 0.273169, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.126141, "energy": 48.301766, "activity_lines": [ 14.2736, 14.276885, 14.082432, 13.804423 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.154, "volume": 565267, "typical_volume": 1239988.55, "trend": 13.549733, "fair_value": 11.072215, "relative_strength": -1.197305, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.949741, "energy": 40.905398, "activity_lines": [ 14.2384, 14.252078, 14.123213, 13.845644 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.857, "volume": 1135589, "typical_volume": 1176368.95, "trend": 13.601433, "fair_value": 11.115699, "relative_strength": 3.35192, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.410397, "energy": 58.082164, "activity_lines": [ 14.430933, 14.357413, 14.223389, 13.929984 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }