{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad27dc37-f4b2-4c71-adfb-34423e74282e", "symbol": "EVLV", "name": "Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 59.306, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -3.213, "architecture_energy": 12.198, "architecture_maturity": 24.833, "architecture_confidence": 42.794, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.56, "rotation_up": 28.21, "upward_expansion": 19.36, "deceleration": 53.73, "rotation_down": 40.89, "downward_expansion": 39.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.715333, 5.747818, 5.944476, 5.936 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.13, "trend_reference": 5.920333, "distance_from_trend": 0.035415, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.951442, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.238023, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.831837, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.116576, "excess_performance": -0.070878, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035415, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049197, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.238023, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.180497, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.188318, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07869, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.116576, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.759195, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7782538, "relative_activity": 0.631342, "balance": 0.759195, "dry_up": 0.690423, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123573, "annualized_volatility": 0.569334, "from_high_reference": -0.312009, "from_low_reference": 0.260021 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.920333, "fair_value_reference": 4.951442, "structural_low": 4.865, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.022523, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.005216, "regime_survival": 0.526316, "best_return": 0.752381, "worst_return": -0.345679, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.136637, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.196673, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.106383, "worst_return": -0.534517, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.306831, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.23458, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.804455, "worst_return": -0.431953, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.358911, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.187207, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.091837, "worst_return": -0.203156, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.366584, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.569767, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074592, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.221662, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037618, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.470199, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.3663, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.267571, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.128326, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", 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6.041828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 6.24, "volume": 12368906, "typical_volume": 14710126.0, "trend": 6.13, "fair_value": 4.974968, "relative_strength": -18.736672, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.617057, "energy": 20.905402, "activity_lines": [ 5.866667, 6.006364, 6.091524, 6.048 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.92, "volume": 9243450, "typical_volume": 14423579.55, "trend": 6.093667, "fair_value": 4.974519, "relative_strength": -24.002151, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.520436, "energy": 22.246136, "activity_lines": [ 5.884667, 5.954364, 6.088571, 6.034452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.66, "volume": 7261758, "typical_volume": 14176304.1, "trend": 6.042, "fair_value": 4.971891, "relative_strength": -23.874528, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.947325, "energy": 19.061022, "activity_lines": [ 5.815333, 5.88, 6.056619, 6.006473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.24, "volume": 7878954, "typical_volume": 13844882.9, "trend": 5.994667, "fair_value": 4.966186, "relative_strength": -27.805204, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.029074, "energy": 30.232091, "activity_lines": [ 5.634667, 5.754545, 5.982952, 5.954731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.53, "volume": 11120074, "typical_volume": 12813076.85, "trend": 5.955667, "fair_value": 4.961186, "relative_strength": -23.645574, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.777202, "energy": 37.19052, "activity_lines": [ 5.578, 5.690182, 5.936143, 5.924753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.13, "volume": 7782538, "typical_volume": 12326981.2, "trend": 5.920333, "fair_value": 4.951442, "relative_strength": -18.831837, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.213407, "energy": 12.197718, "activity_lines": [ 5.715333, 5.747818, 5.944476, 5.936 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }