{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad354b92-0bbf-4614-83dc-cdc7939f27f6", "symbol": "300139", "name": "Beijing XIAOCHENG Technology Stock Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 92.776, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.714, "architecture_energy": 29.079, "architecture_maturity": 39.263, "architecture_confidence": 37.96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.03, "rotation_up": 27.35, "upward_expansion": 17.91, "deceleration": 63.03, "rotation_down": 35.63, "downward_expansion": 63.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.1, 40.371496, 43.309827, 46.948936 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 48.0, "trend_reference": 50.006405, "distance_from_trend": -0.040123, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.566937, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.127006, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 19.029577, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.288889, "excess_performance": -0.296289, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.040123, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09357, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.127006, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.874602, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.190296, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.289132, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.288889, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.245329, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 262322323, "relative_activity": 1.986776, "balance": 1.245329, "dry_up": 1.520699, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14726, "annualized_volatility": 0.763023, "from_high_reference": -0.47701, "from_low_reference": 1.601626 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.006405, "fair_value_reference": 22.566937, "structural_low": 32.360001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.090289, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.055328, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.668973, "worst_return": -0.09933, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.004872, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.069352, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.970458, "worst_return": -0.050867, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.129111, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.090673, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.837518, "worst_return": -0.083705, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 37.84, "volume": 227916411, "typical_volume": 127977792.55, "trend": 49.261405, "fair_value": 22.130142, "relative_strength": -0.639625, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.541299, "energy": 51.310341, "activity_lines": [ 37.430374, 39.157574, 44.118086, 47.669569 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.509998, "volume": 193344495, "typical_volume": 126756037.1, "trend": 49.418405, "fair_value": 22.320719, "relative_strength": 4.418003, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.638167, "energy": 48.680324, "activity_lines": [ 37.956114, 38.922626, 43.250932, 47.040446 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.0, "volume": 262322323, "typical_volume": 132034157.65, "trend": 50.006405, "fair_value": 22.566937, "relative_strength": 19.029577, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.713635, "energy": 29.078693, "activity_lines": [ 41.1, 40.371496, 43.309827, 46.948936 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }