{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "ad3747bd-5e06-4f59-bcae-4fbb92c62506",
    "symbol": "MPB",
    "name": "Mid Penn Bancorp",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 70.359,
    "architecture_energy": 74.958,
    "architecture_maturity": 24.062,
    "architecture_confidence": 80.055,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 7.49,
        "rotation_up": 76.07,
        "upward_expansion": 92.25,
        "deceleration": 42.41,
        "rotation_down": 9.92,
        "downward_expansion": 16.58
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        37.077976,
        36.057017,
        34.766524,
        34.086802
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 37.6,
    "trend_reference": 33.399155,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.125777,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 26.478497,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.42002,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 4.170238,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.093691,
    "excess_performance": -0.093762,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.125777,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.054911,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.42002,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.129104,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.041702,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.124464,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.093691,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.326515,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 841763,
      "relative_activity": 1.000073,
      "balance": 2.326515,
      "dry_up": 1.051531,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.056742,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.198116,
      "from_high_reference": -0.033825,
      "from_low_reference": 0.447115
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 33.399155,
      "fair_value_reference": 26.478497,
      "structural_low": 29.889157,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 25,
        "median_return": 0.003062,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": 0.003309,
        "regime_survival": 0.68,
        "best_return": 0.10505,
        "worst_return": -0.120013,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": -0.027663,
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": -0.011893,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
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        "worst_return": -0.121784,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.067387,
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        "median_excess_return": 0.016516,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
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        "worst_return": -0.040337,
        "sufficient": true
      },
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
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        "worst_return": -0.372222,
        "sufficient": false
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "relative_strength": -4.191627,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 714016,
        "typical_volume": 815040.65,
        "trend": 32.734469,
        "fair_value": 26.16735,
        "relative_strength": 2.289729,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.754591,
        "energy": 54.266099,
        "activity_lines": [
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          34.219735,
          33.541575,
          33.195196
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 36.948176,
        "volume": 830913,
        "typical_volume": 820673.75,
        "trend": 32.924257,
        "fair_value": 26.264199,
        "relative_strength": 8.706999,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 75.342514,
        "energy": 62.68162,
        "activity_lines": [
          35.566999,
          34.827733,
          33.921258,
          33.467048
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 38.111194,
        "volume": 1153608,
        "typical_volume": 838113.2,
        "trend": 33.180739,
        "fair_value": 26.369962,
        "relative_strength": 11.185181,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.394652,
        "energy": 73.617197,
        "activity_lines": [
          36.523393,
          35.541221,
          34.384853,
          33.801689
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 37.6,
        "volume": 841763,
        "typical_volume": 841701.35,
        "trend": 33.399155,
        "fair_value": 26.478497,
        "relative_strength": 4.170238,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 70.358825,
        "energy": 74.957975,
        "activity_lines": [
          37.077976,
          36.057017,
          34.766524,
          34.086802
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}