{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad3a659e-6430-4d52-96b4-9328f254131b", "symbol": "SAJP", "name": "iShares MSCI Japan Screened UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.121, "architecture_energy": 37.174, "architecture_maturity": 54.501, "architecture_confidence": 93.597, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.2, "rotation_up": 40.22, "upward_expansion": 66.76, "deceleration": 91.19, "rotation_down": 28.3, "downward_expansion": 13.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.719533, 9.714836, 9.598457, 9.428989 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.061, "trend_reference": 9.237717, "distance_from_trend": 0.089122, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.317467, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.374929, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.077384, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.108528, "excess_performance": 0.057293, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089122, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054432, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.374929, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027768, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.060774, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028697, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.108528, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 14.852253, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 395650, "relative_activity": 0.548073, "balance": 14.852253, "dry_up": 0.475774, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033124, "annualized_volatility": 0.235312, "from_high_reference": -0.003042, "from_low_reference": 0.312418 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.237717, "fair_value_reference": 7.317467, "structural_low": 8.123, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.01672, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.014027, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.111457, "worst_return": -0.028385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.062134, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.065175, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.195738, "worst_return": -0.031408, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.013191, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.0002, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.081723, "worst_return": -0.153725, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03585, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029256, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032615, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027489, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004388, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.677471, "energy": 70.560787, "activity_lines": [ 9.812933, 9.721064, 9.456445, 9.299015 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.359, "volume": 318359, "typical_volume": 821554.15, "trend": 9.108267, "fair_value": 7.244899, "relative_strength": 1.96309, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.515254, "energy": 36.866411, "activity_lines": [ 9.668533, 9.670418, 9.468926, 9.317525 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.5395, "volume": 326550, "typical_volume": 790150.9, "trend": 9.14935, "fair_value": 7.266947, "relative_strength": 2.465106, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.695685, "energy": 30.202887, "activity_lines": [ 9.6012, 9.654, 9.498988, 9.345346 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.576, "volume": 333270, "typical_volume": 728774.35, "trend": 9.191183, "fair_value": 7.290409, "relative_strength": 1.43782, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.959861, "energy": 21.511737, "activity_lines": [ 9.575933, 9.641445, 9.528176, 9.372872 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.061, "volume": 395650, "typical_volume": 721892.25, "trend": 9.237717, "fair_value": 7.317467, "relative_strength": 6.077384, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.120553, "energy": 37.173707, "activity_lines": [ 9.719533, 9.714836, 9.598457, 9.428989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }