{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad3ce9cf-a43e-4141-a9a9-4f7bcfa45c92", "symbol": "301133", "name": "Guangzhou Jinzhong Auto Parts Manufacturing Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.999, "architecture_energy": 87.873, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.491, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.28, "rotation_up": 8.1, "upward_expansion": 21.97, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 80.86, "downward_expansion": 97.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.918, 30.092363, 35.635857, 37.400193 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 26.9, "trend_reference": 38.996, "distance_from_trend": -0.310186, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.220406, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.011771, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.483537, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.3275, "excess_performance": -0.3349, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.310186, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016174, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.011771, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.885605, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.244835, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.544634, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.3275, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.263367, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14246373, "relative_activity": 1.041953, "balance": 0.263367, "dry_up": 1.603298, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.179354, "annualized_volatility": 0.664814, "from_high_reference": -0.470368, "from_low_reference": 0.403967 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.996, "fair_value_reference": 27.220406, "structural_low": 19.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.044608, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.006496, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.282065, "worst_return": -0.099211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.155355, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.041894, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.291005, "worst_return": -0.031934, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.286243, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.005022, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.335011, "worst_return": 0.163328, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"activity_lines": [ 39.194, 41.015636, 42.099333, 41.552731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 35.389999, "volume": 12378480, "typical_volume": 11985790.15, "trend": 40.406, "fair_value": 27.26063, "relative_strength": -6.490989, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.693967, "energy": 53.537052, "activity_lines": [ 37.818, 39.657636, 41.496952, 41.233849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.219999, "volume": 19214610, "typical_volume": 12550910.2, "trend": 40.140666, "fair_value": 27.254256, "relative_strength": -26.674566, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -67.013034, "energy": 77.884462, "activity_lines": [ 33.399333, 36.650727, 39.945381, 40.254107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.24, "volume": 27755083, "typical_volume": 13246400.6, "trend": 39.788667, "fair_value": 27.230591, "relative_strength": -29.656139, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.099257, "energy": 91.878206, "activity_lines": [ 29.664666, 33.901454, 38.364571, 39.228258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.93, "volume": 26469968, "typical_volume": 13821656.65, "trend": 39.376333, "fair_value": 27.208672, "relative_strength": -29.356831, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.761988, "energy": 92.917029, "activity_lines": [ 26.810666, 31.512363, 36.822857, 38.205118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.9, "volume": 14246373, "typical_volume": 13672762.8, "trend": 38.996, "fair_value": 27.220406, "relative_strength": -24.483537, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.999172, "energy": 87.873301, "activity_lines": [ 25.918, 30.092363, 35.635857, 37.400193 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }