{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad43a125-18d9-46f0-9608-5ac9ea340355", "symbol": "002439", "name": "Venustech Group Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 56.422, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -15.299, "architecture_energy": 14.437, "architecture_maturity": 48.366, "architecture_confidence": 59.545, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.57, "rotation_up": 35.62, "upward_expansion": 22.08, "deceleration": 39.81, "rotation_down": 17.44, "downward_expansion": 51.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.844667, 13.488182, 13.822048, 13.957591 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.42, "trend_reference": 14.166667, "distance_from_trend": 0.017882, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.592462, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.180331, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.258741, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.016209, "excess_performance": 0.008809, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017882, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028882, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.180331, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057705, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052587, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063421, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.016209, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.116305, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 213012959, "relative_activity": 1.507187, "balance": 1.116305, "dry_up": 1.422163, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073669, "annualized_volatility": 0.396523, "from_high_reference": -0.189432, "from_low_reference": 0.162903 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.166667, "fair_value_reference": 17.592462, "structural_low": 12.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.014251, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.018294, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.356748, "worst_return": -0.175681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.060238, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.057805, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.303171, "worst_return": -0.251862, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.073302, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.106305, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.438515, "worst_return": -0.391228, 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"fair_value": 17.876692, "relative_strength": -12.286602, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.956655, "energy": 42.547124, "activity_lines": [ 13.072, 13.237818, 13.843809, 14.00643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.33, "volume": 232617150, "typical_volume": 131966185.4, "trend": 14.161667, "fair_value": 17.786433, "relative_strength": -10.515257, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.860096, "energy": 28.899059, "activity_lines": [ 13.183333, 13.175273, 13.777571, 13.951677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.99, "volume": 197467039, "typical_volume": 134315083.05, "trend": 14.156667, "fair_value": 17.684505, "relative_strength": -4.008799, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.383673, "energy": 17.680398, "activity_lines": [ 13.49, 13.280727, 13.777429, 13.940602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.42, "volume": 213012959, "typical_volume": 141331434.8, "trend": 14.166667, "fair_value": 17.592462, "relative_strength": -5.258741, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.299093, "energy": 14.436811, "activity_lines": [ 13.844667, 13.488182, 13.822048, 13.957591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }