{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad48eeb0-f160-4c3a-b624-6a46097f2b24", "symbol": "STUDBO", "name": "Studentbost\u00e4der i Norden AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.356, "architecture_energy": 35.627, "architecture_maturity": 88.539, "architecture_confidence": 60.667, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.74, "rotation_up": 26.4, "upward_expansion": 16.9, "deceleration": 66.86, "rotation_down": 37.09, "downward_expansion": 64.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.315333, 1.313273, 1.37081, 1.440065 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.35, "trend_reference": 1.529, "distance_from_trend": -0.11707, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.358215, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.006048, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.552199, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.217391, "excess_performance": -0.278886, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.11707, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083608, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.006048, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113206, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.265522, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089945, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.217391, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.179411, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 132630, "relative_activity": 0.348929, "balance": 1.179411, "dry_up": 0.724187, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080057, "annualized_volatility": 0.25816, "from_high_reference": -0.305913, "from_low_reference": 0.238532 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.529, "fair_value_reference": 1.358215, "structural_low": 1.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.044594, "positive_rate": 0.294118, "directional_follow_through": 0.705882, "median_excess_return": -0.078796, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.334066, "worst_return": -0.34907, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.18812, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.165065, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.298701, "worst_return": -0.484453, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.033333, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.178161, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.977011, "worst_return": -0.651741, "sufficient": true }, { 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018382, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017301, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.118644, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048387, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060932, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003344, 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429729.8, "trend": 1.5585, "fair_value": 1.355407, "relative_strength": -26.878375, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.357449, "energy": 56.284873, "activity_lines": [ 1.292333, 1.318091, 1.397643, 1.469312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.3, "volume": 133460, "typical_volume": 402471.1, "trend": 1.544833, "fair_value": 1.356561, "relative_strength": -28.29529, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.297261, "energy": 50.812861, "activity_lines": [ 1.293667, 1.309636, 1.380929, 1.452634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.35, "volume": 132630, "typical_volume": 380105.45, "trend": 1.529, "fair_value": 1.358215, "relative_strength": -26.552199, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.35555, "energy": 35.62706, "activity_lines": [ 1.315333, 1.313273, 1.37081, 1.440065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }