{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad4bdff6-660d-4940-b7a9-b9bb67f82be6", "symbol": "000883", "name": "Hubei Energy Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 54.166, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.429, "architecture_energy": 17.145, "architecture_maturity": 38.348, "architecture_confidence": 68.835, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.02, "rotation_up": 27.73, "upward_expansion": 15.35, "deceleration": 43.55, "rotation_down": 29.29, "downward_expansion": 60.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.613922, 4.562394, 4.67392, 4.712139 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.62, "trend_reference": 4.724838, "distance_from_trend": -0.022189, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.691562, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.015253, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.726271, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.002169, "excess_performance": -0.005231, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022189, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003549, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.015253, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0755, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.047263, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094466, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.002169, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.358849, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 138902829, "relative_activity": 0.7163, "balance": 1.358849, "dry_up": 0.952023, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070136, "annualized_volatility": 0.333633, "from_high_reference": -0.149171, "from_low_reference": 0.096477 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.724838, "fair_value_reference": 4.691562, "structural_low": 4.213493, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.004211, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": -0.011298, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.199074, "worst_return": -0.073059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.01087, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.037783, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.159817, "worst_return": -0.018735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.069042, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.016959, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.379391, "worst_return": -0.020179, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 202167506.7, "trend": 4.717505, "fair_value": 4.685173, "relative_strength": -4.77144, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.522115, "energy": 60.560794, "activity_lines": [ 4.401427, 4.579402, 4.703517, 4.723656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.64, "volume": 264792426, "typical_volume": 202930736.3, "trend": 4.718838, "fair_value": 4.686951, "relative_strength": -1.492252, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.002148, "energy": 52.745805, "activity_lines": [ 4.476417, 4.567127, 4.690635, 4.718656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.72, "volume": 156138668, "typical_volume": 197044686.45, "trend": 4.722172, "fair_value": 4.689364, "relative_strength": 2.050495, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.86298, "energy": 22.905675, "activity_lines": [ 4.578074, 4.572306, 4.686373, 4.718731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.62, "volume": 138902829, "typical_volume": 193917224.65, "trend": 4.724838, "fair_value": 4.691562, "relative_strength": -4.726271, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.428714, "energy": 17.145143, "activity_lines": [ 4.613922, 4.562394, 4.67392, 4.712139 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }