{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad4e9513-b38b-43e9-912d-df665c8fb681", "symbol": "QNCX", "name": "Quince Therapeutics, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.678, "architecture_energy": 39.47, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.914, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.06, "rotation_up": 30.67, "upward_expansion": 27.97, "deceleration": 44.17, "rotation_down": 42.37, "downward_expansion": 57.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.561667, 21.247891, 21.53021, 26.149062 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 30.2, "trend_reference": 66.062033, "distance_from_trend": -0.542854, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 236.72129, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.872424, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -88.990078, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.08555, "excess_performance": -0.101904, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.542854, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.745789, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.872424, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028905, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.889901, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038927, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.08555, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.157439, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 180059, "relative_activity": 0.0015, "balance": 0.157439, "dry_up": 0.001676, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.144264, "annualized_volatility": 1.17709, "from_high_reference": -0.966812, "from_low_reference": 1.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 66.062033, "fair_value_reference": 236.72129, "structural_low": 15.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.121991, "positive_rate": 0.28125, "directional_follow_through": 0.71875, "median_excess_return": -0.105856, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.694383, "worst_return": -0.526149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.017391, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.185178, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 1.966715, "worst_return": -0.66411, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.300041, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.029161, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.46988, "worst_return": -0.769716, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.902687, "energy": 69.424595, "activity_lines": [ 18.049667, 18.5532, 20.482362, 34.639884 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.39, "volume": 229919, "typical_volume": 123337738.8, "trend": 82.9887, "fair_value": 238.091803, "relative_strength": -91.274971, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.448729, "energy": 64.68469, "activity_lines": [ 19.821333, 19.294091, 20.686976, 29.554785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.2, "volume": 180059, "typical_volume": 120052873.75, "trend": 66.062033, "fair_value": 236.72129, "relative_strength": -88.990078, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.678186, "energy": 39.469853, "activity_lines": [ 23.561667, 21.247891, 21.53021, 26.149062 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }