{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad50010a-cda9-4ad0-8477-982792a9a60f", "symbol": "LCEU", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy Low Carbon 100 Europe PAB", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.407, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.856, "architecture_energy": 79.744, "architecture_maturity": 31.694, "architecture_confidence": 78.547, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.17, "rotation_up": 71.56, "upward_expansion": 94.25, "deceleration": 44.69, "rotation_down": 22.04, "downward_expansion": 16.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 301.816669, 299.829092, 294.032384, 289.47269 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 305.700012, "trend_reference": 284.811668, "distance_from_trend": 0.073341, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 257.454168, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.187396, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.135383, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.092566, "excess_performance": -0.078326, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073341, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034287, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.187396, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071588, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051354, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025808, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.092566, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.78526, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1052, "relative_activity": 1.011782, "balance": 1.78526, "dry_up": 0.933157, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016771, "annualized_volatility": 0.147825, "from_high_reference": -0.004559, "from_low_reference": 0.201415 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 284.811668, "fair_value_reference": 257.454168, "structural_low": 255.649994, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.006738, "positive_rate": 0.548387, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.011308, "regime_survival": 0.709677, "best_return": 0.075, "worst_return": -0.091607, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.006563, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.027204, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.075942, "worst_return": -0.038318, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.05228, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.039154, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.120238, "worst_return": -0.115064, "sufficient": true }, { 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.364374, "energy": 87.505607, "activity_lines": [ 297.826666, 293.817276, 287.545956, 284.649465 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 299.049988, "volume": 1274, "typical_volume": 1579.9, "trend": 282.166668, "fair_value": 256.060898, "relative_strength": -4.428513, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.816184, "energy": 86.827316, "activity_lines": [ 298.793329, 295.411818, 289.075955, 285.795916 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 299.850006, "volume": 1021, "typical_volume": 1537.5, "trend": 283.091668, "fair_value": 256.483014, "relative_strength": -3.84634, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.230267, "energy": 85.805728, "activity_lines": [ 299.499998, 296.828182, 290.641193, 286.936776 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 300.649994, "volume": 534, "typical_volume": 1254.55, "trend": 283.951667, "fair_value": 256.951603, "relative_strength": -4.102993, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.612006, "energy": 72.680616, "activity_lines": [ 299.979997, 297.987271, 292.167859, 288.069571 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 305.700012, "volume": 1052, "typical_volume": 1039.75, "trend": 284.811668, "fair_value": 257.454168, "relative_strength": -5.135383, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.855964, "energy": 79.74404, "activity_lines": [ 301.816669, 299.829092, 294.032384, 289.47269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }