{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad53e460-9bf8-4834-823d-7dcfa9f6f4fd", "symbol": "BITC", "name": "CoinShares Bitcoin ETP", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.23, "architecture_energy": 43.059, "architecture_maturity": 73.742, "architecture_confidence": 64.505, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.77, "rotation_up": 26.93, "upward_expansion": 18.97, "deceleration": 66.7, "rotation_down": 37.0, "downward_expansion": 64.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.984666, 45.629272, 47.805928, 48.865645 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 46.345001, "trend_reference": 50.7845, "distance_from_trend": -0.087418, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 55.368269, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.162968, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.98466, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.039183, "excess_performance": -0.122066, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.087418, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117768, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.162968, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.225979, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.319847, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109221, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.039183, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.584531, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2437, "relative_activity": 4.208618, "balance": 0.584531, "dry_up": 1.94586, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044955, "annualized_volatility": 0.370099, "from_high_reference": -0.48067, "from_low_reference": 0.063447 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.7845, "fair_value_reference": 55.368269, "structural_low": 43.580002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.008032, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.017143, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.244805, "worst_return": -0.185306, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.026477, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035709, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.811654, "worst_return": -0.200683, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.211455, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.16656, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.372688, "worst_return": -0.323082, "sufficient": false }, { 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02899, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.116558, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065152, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.106778, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070857, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": 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45.279999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 732.85, "trend": 52.5485, "fair_value": 54.9125, "relative_strength": -35.704157, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.754958, "energy": 65.816101, "activity_lines": [ 45.210999, 46.119273, 48.88719, 50.007107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.189999, "volume": 870, "typical_volume": 633.85, "trend": 51.989833, "fair_value": 55.065705, "relative_strength": -33.358461, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.233677, "energy": 56.332706, "activity_lines": [ 45.552332, 45.785909, 48.508095, 49.596882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.724998, "volume": 1200, "typical_volume": 555.55, "trend": 51.414333, "fair_value": 55.215545, "relative_strength": -33.028349, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.651451, "energy": 46.162282, "activity_lines": [ 45.727665, 45.563272, 48.109809, 49.192699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.345001, "volume": 2437, "typical_volume": 579.05, "trend": 50.7845, "fair_value": 55.368269, "relative_strength": -31.98466, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.230181, "energy": 43.05929, "activity_lines": [ 45.984666, 45.629272, 47.805928, 48.865645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }