{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad593bf4-4801-4e5f-a544-1c0e38b53768", "symbol": "MTNL", "name": "Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.832, "architecture_energy": 58.242, "architecture_maturity": 8.317, "architecture_confidence": 78.32, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.29, "rotation_up": 7.04, "upward_expansion": 19.11, "deceleration": 43.66, "rotation_down": 68.43, "downward_expansion": 80.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.596667, 28.534364, 29.327667, 29.190258 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 27.809999, "trend_reference": 29.396334, "distance_from_trend": -0.053964, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 40.334487, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.310516, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.878244, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.108082, "excess_performance": -0.064373, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.053964, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086673, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.310516, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122123, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.178782, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033529, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.108082, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.554068, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3073234, "relative_activity": 0.496412, "balance": 0.554068, "dry_up": 0.558929, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07933, "annualized_volatility": 0.450398, "from_high_reference": -0.422909, "from_low_reference": 0.30809 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.396334, "fair_value_reference": 40.334487, "structural_low": 21.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.022524, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": -0.027384, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.271097, "worst_return": -0.134381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.017284, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.043559, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.240291, "worst_return": -0.191198, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.123519, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.01492, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.261728, "worst_return": -0.198172, "sufficient": false 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6862780.35, "trend": 30.537334, "fair_value": 40.140641, "relative_strength": -15.840958, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.216375, "energy": 9.47138, "activity_lines": [ 30.092, 30.294182, 29.932, 29.85628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.09, "volume": 3722839, "typical_volume": 6820040.65, "trend": 30.272, "fair_value": 40.196026, "relative_strength": -18.729161, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.974103, "energy": 24.054578, "activity_lines": [ 29.313333, 29.875637, 29.83281, 29.698387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.110001, "volume": 4900474, "typical_volume": 6761075.35, "trend": 29.939334, "fair_value": 40.245128, "relative_strength": -18.842642, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.810948, "energy": 45.489127, "activity_lines": [ 28.391334, 29.351637, 29.648143, 29.494387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.030001, "volume": 2144517, "typical_volume": 6457311.75, "trend": 29.614667, "fair_value": 40.287308, "relative_strength": -20.311537, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.419373, "energy": 58.25882, "activity_lines": [ 27.760001, 28.851637, 29.455286, 29.306689 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.809999, "volume": 3073234, "typical_volume": 6190891.5, "trend": 29.396334, "fair_value": 40.334487, "relative_strength": -17.878244, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.832122, "energy": 58.242166, "activity_lines": [ 27.596667, 28.534364, 29.327667, 29.190258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }