{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad5989a0-7a7d-4f77-a625-a0c13a880e13", "symbol": "IBTJ", "name": "ISHARES IBONDS DEC 2029 TERM TREASURY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 68.267, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.832, "architecture_energy": 32.038, "architecture_maturity": 18.467, "architecture_confidence": 91.739, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.84, "rotation_up": 20.85, "upward_expansion": 3.65, "deceleration": 48.3, "rotation_down": 51.01, "downward_expansion": 79.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.50733, 21.516235, 21.534508, 21.563737 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 21.55, "trend_reference": 21.598808, "distance_from_trend": -0.00226, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.555581, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.048377, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.716955, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.005584, "excess_performance": -0.193037, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00226, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000592, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.048377, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011798, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12717, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035778, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.005584, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.068776, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1255096, "relative_activity": 0.94291, "balance": 1.068776, "dry_up": 1.088986, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004467, "annualized_volatility": 0.0244, "from_high_reference": -0.01405, "from_low_reference": 0.018273 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.598808, "fair_value_reference": 20.555581, "structural_low": 21.416715, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.000319, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": 0.030479, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.035029, "worst_return": -0.045809, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.004761, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.042674, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.048055, "worst_return": -0.065641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.005661, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007564, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.040165, "worst_return": -0.070089, "sufficient": 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"volume": 1903898, "typical_volume": 1332919.8, "trend": 21.600357, "fair_value": 20.540017, "relative_strength": -8.910728, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.142898, "energy": 48.453187, "activity_lines": [ 21.489816, 21.511041, 21.535504, 21.566986 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.55, "volume": 1255096, "typical_volume": 1331087.25, "trend": 21.598808, "fair_value": 20.555581, "relative_strength": -12.716955, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.831692, "energy": 32.037912, "activity_lines": [ 21.50733, 21.516235, 21.534508, 21.563737 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }