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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.171, "architecture_energy": 56.062, "architecture_maturity": 35.853, "architecture_confidence": 86.664, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.15, "rotation_up": 60.8, "upward_expansion": 78.52, "deceleration": 61.02, "rotation_down": 18.86, "downward_expansion": 7.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 235.43964, 231.475666, 218.127039, 210.587561 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 251.78, "trend_reference": 204.930518, "distance_from_trend": 0.228612, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 157.906373, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.594489, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.154058, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.145344, "excess_performance": 0.019719, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.228612, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072989, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.594489, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.3359, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.131541, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.260381, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.145344, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.910085, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5407300, "relative_activity": 0.986421, "balance": 2.910085, "dry_up": 0.837062, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071632, "annualized_volatility": 0.385834, "from_high_reference": -0.004783, "from_low_reference": 0.521237 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 204.930518, "fair_value_reference": 157.906373, "structural_low": 165.51, 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 228.41, "volume": 5328563, "typical_volume": 6012095.4, "trend": 200.407978, "fair_value": 154.643666, "relative_strength": 7.06243, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.901696, "energy": 56.475602, "activity_lines": [ 227.29305, 222.026918, 208.114998, 204.011931 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 226.74, "volume": 3588346, "typical_volume": 5910945.3, "trend": 201.723079, "fair_value": 155.665601, "relative_strength": 6.753035, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.702947, "energy": 45.192182, "activity_lines": [ 226.822098, 224.465955, 210.804753, 205.710771 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 228.66, "volume": 4030015, "typical_volume": 5782786.1, "trend": 203.126676, "fair_value": 156.703893, "relative_strength": 6.460599, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.833856, "energy": 42.694805, "activity_lines": [ 226.952977, 226.19772, 213.482457, 207.448637 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 251.78, "volume": 5407300, "typical_volume": 5481739.15, "trend": 204.930518, "fair_value": 157.906373, "relative_strength": 13.154058, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.170853, "energy": 56.061746, "activity_lines": [ 235.43964, 231.475666, 218.127039, 210.587561 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }