{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad5aa76e-ec67-4597-87ea-9402a17b8ce0", "symbol": "8426", "name": "Redwood Group Ltd", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.81, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.783, "architecture_energy": 21.811, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 60.338, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.72, "rotation_up": 31.93, "upward_expansion": 18.9, "deceleration": 46.92, "rotation_down": 19.17, "downward_expansion": 52.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.106667, 20.64884, 20.790851, 21.59093 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 21.35, "trend_reference": 22.879233, "distance_from_trend": -0.066839, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 37.262123, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.427032, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -40.384662, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.179228, "excess_performance": -0.6206, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.066839, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088425, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.427032, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060485, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.403847, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093755, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.179228, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.657734, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 185277, "relative_activity": 0.758628, "balance": 1.657734, "dry_up": 1.001581, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061684, "annualized_volatility": 0.187125, "from_high_reference": -0.34314, "from_low_reference": 0.115672 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.879233, "fair_value_reference": 37.262123, "structural_low": 19.13645, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.01676, "positive_rate": 0.451613, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.070888, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.887789, "worst_return": -0.225917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.003521, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.06552, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 1.075, "worst_return": -0.258495, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.006902, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.243178, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.844444, "worst_return": -0.31579, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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37.76967, "relative_strength": -42.990853, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.380967, "energy": 40.900223, "activity_lines": [ 20.156019, 20.13486, 20.917313, 21.975438 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.0, "volume": 348107, "typical_volume": 253471.7, "trend": 23.226839, "fair_value": 37.58664, "relative_strength": -39.985944, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.794211, "energy": 29.440978, "activity_lines": [ 20.490639, 20.258282, 20.831857, 21.818407 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.4, "volume": 143010, "typical_volume": 244316.7, "trend": 23.049061, "fair_value": 37.418059, "relative_strength": -39.249532, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.843275, "energy": 21.193793, "activity_lines": [ 20.86, 20.459889, 20.805845, 21.700547 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 21.35, "volume": 185277, "typical_volume": 244226.4, "trend": 22.879233, "fair_value": 37.262123, "relative_strength": -40.384662, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.783387, "energy": 21.811068, "activity_lines": [ 21.106667, 20.64884, 20.790851, 21.59093 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }