{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad651363-a135-4b2e-89f0-a0fe576061cf", "symbol": "000751", "name": "Huludao Zinc Industry Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.465, "architecture_energy": 63.647, "architecture_maturity": 6.856, "architecture_confidence": 74.743, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.59, "rotation_up": 14.57, "upward_expansion": 16.61, "deceleration": 34.9, "rotation_down": 65.98, "downward_expansion": 87.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.701333, 4.866909, 5.147991, 5.33128 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.3, "trend_reference": 5.49624, "distance_from_trend": -0.035704, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.585621, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.478126, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.261652, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.228161, "excess_performance": -0.235561, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035704, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061873, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.478126, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.394664, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.082617, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161346, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.228161, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.596293, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 478926201, "relative_activity": 1.558342, "balance": 0.596293, "dry_up": 0.954687, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116779, "annualized_volatility": 0.717467, "from_high_reference": -0.32094, "from_low_reference": 0.618979 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.49624, "fair_value_reference": 3.585621, "structural_low": 4.02, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.001953, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.015633, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.173387, "worst_return": -0.201072, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.027442, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.020838, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.182736, "worst_return": -0.183511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.015253, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005436, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.151494, "worst_return": -0.082447, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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5.553733 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.3, "volume": 262492740, "typical_volume": 346719504.4, "trend": 5.43612, "fair_value": 3.563248, "relative_strength": -7.939475, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.0604, "energy": 32.171944, "activity_lines": [ 4.946667, 5.089773, 5.365333, 5.481375 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.26, "volume": 248613001, "typical_volume": 312542192.15, "trend": 5.444711, "fair_value": 3.568014, "relative_strength": -9.175287, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.72578, "energy": 71.397811, "activity_lines": [ 4.662, 4.915807, 5.243739, 5.405497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.45, "volume": 183586085, "typical_volume": 300522651.35, "trend": 5.455644, "fair_value": 3.573872, "relative_strength": -3.828088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.084308, "energy": 75.849527, "activity_lines": [ 4.5, 4.804545, 5.151607, 5.341322 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.3, "volume": 478926201, "typical_volume": 307330584.8, "trend": 5.49624, "fair_value": 3.585621, "relative_strength": 8.261652, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.465428, "energy": 63.647147, "activity_lines": [ 4.701333, 4.866909, 5.147991, 5.33128 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }