{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad68916c-9499-4bfb-93be-3ef0eed031d0", "symbol": "LBRT", "name": "WisdomTree Brent Crude Oil 2x Daily Leveraged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 71.929, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.152, "architecture_energy": 21.884, "architecture_maturity": 28.74, "architecture_confidence": 73.276, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.63, "rotation_up": 48.55, "upward_expansion": 58.12, "deceleration": 70.73, "rotation_down": 12.94, "downward_expansion": 17.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 79.357335, 75.427092, 80.845, 80.629699 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 74.660004, "trend_reference": 74.978667, "distance_from_trend": -0.00425, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 54.885417, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.360289, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.757431, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.743171, "excess_performance": 0.572279, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00425, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.212805, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.360289, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.494414, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.097574, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.644081, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.743171, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.74531, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 367304, "relative_activity": 1.544309, "balance": 0.74531, "dry_up": 1.667547, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.173082, "annualized_volatility": 1.052829, "from_high_reference": -0.37392, "from_low_reference": 1.340439 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 74.978667, "fair_value_reference": 54.885417, "structural_low": 40.785, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.026486, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.037669, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.112397, "worst_return": -0.218023, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.074281, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.113449, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.051084, "worst_return": -0.33899, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.168422, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.337709, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.033627, "worst_return": -0.246469, "sufficient": false }, { 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"close": 87.709999, "volume": 430517, "typical_volume": 271755.4, "trend": 72.123166, "fair_value": 54.620801, "relative_strength": 35.571788, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.289071, "energy": 17.403175, "activity_lines": [ 75.768667, 75.248363, 82.390381, 79.950344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 81.730003, "volume": 599919, "typical_volume": 262040.6, "trend": 73.736833, "fair_value": 54.78093, "relative_strength": 24.52463, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.724035, "energy": 17.686087, "activity_lines": [ 79.476668, 75.776546, 81.936571, 80.57014 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 74.660004, "volume": 367304, "typical_volume": 237843.55, "trend": 74.978667, "fair_value": 54.885417, "relative_strength": 9.757431, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.151937, "energy": 21.883635, "activity_lines": [ 79.357335, 75.427092, 80.845, 80.629699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }