{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad691bed-e024-44f6-8984-94055ddda103", "symbol": "GEPA3", "name": "Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 58.896, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.998, "architecture_energy": 36.609, "architecture_maturity": 7.371, "architecture_confidence": 61.24, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.9, "rotation_up": 21.51, "upward_expansion": 25.26, "deceleration": 50.33, "rotation_down": 60.67, "downward_expansion": 47.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.974002, 34.154728, 34.926182, 34.762866 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 34.990002, "trend_reference": 34.400669, "distance_from_trend": 0.017131, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.358688, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.497944, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.165709, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.035682, "excess_performance": 0.09273, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017131, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053864, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.497944, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.259415, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.061657, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012601, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.035682, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.192308, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.192308, "dry_up": 0.506329, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028162, "annualized_volatility": 0.250083, "from_high_reference": -0.07921, "from_low_reference": 0.320777 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.400669, "fair_value_reference": 23.358688, "structural_low": 31.866732, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.020408, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.008388, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.0796, "worst_return": -0.02, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.041946, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.033386, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.15532, "worst_return": -0.071428, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.015592, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.040695, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.133102, "worst_return": -0.164286, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.060979, 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"end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095033, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.001636, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111538, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.03296, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074074, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.326367, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.064787, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.229464, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.093438, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 14.678318, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 1290.0, "trend": 13.818047, "fair_value": 15.087391, "relative_strength": 9.216854, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.436526, 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34.679455, 35.194134, 34.795554 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.0, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 390.0, "trend": 34.13813, "fair_value": 23.105236, "relative_strength": -4.006034, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.238855, "energy": 67.470619, "activity_lines": [ 32.953334, 34.055455, 34.91217, 34.664087 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.990002, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 400.0, "trend": 34.310802, "fair_value": 23.231962, "relative_strength": 2.73877, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.417702, "energy": 62.12563, "activity_lines": [ 33.430001, 34.084001, 34.922519, 34.719047 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.990002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 395.0, "trend": 34.400669, "fair_value": 23.358688, "relative_strength": 6.165709, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.998114, "energy": 36.609081, "activity_lines": [ 33.974002, 34.154728, 34.926182, 34.762866 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }