{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad696fce-66ac-4be2-8b71-9778969536af", "symbol": "STMN34", "name": "STMicroelectronics N.V.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 3.964, "architecture_energy": 28.774, "architecture_maturity": 73.182, "architecture_confidence": 69.501, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.0, "rotation_up": 14.96, "upward_expansion": 43.26, "deceleration": 88.0, "rotation_down": 46.89, "downward_expansion": 34.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 279.89067, 311.550863, 313.757861, 286.19662 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 283.5, "trend_reference": 246.034724, "distance_from_trend": 0.152276, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 186.723281, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.51829, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 39.704788, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.879511, "excess_performance": 0.936559, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.152276, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.40949, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.51829, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.14037, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.397048, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033215, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.879511, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.738523, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 641, "relative_activity": 2.661408, "balance": 3.738523, "dry_up": 1.512352, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13682, "annualized_volatility": 0.685314, "from_high_reference": -0.355064, "from_low_reference": 1.377372 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 246.034724, "fair_value_reference": 186.723281, "structural_low": 161.301975, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.028098, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.00798, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.279213, "worst_return": -0.091151, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.024646, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.093068, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.303272, "worst_return": -0.086231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.030691, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.136391, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.330086, "worst_return": -0.147531, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.147729, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.160952, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.063128, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.170918, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.130502, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078975, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034368, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.152428, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.823858, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059536, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 221.255829, "volume": 13, "typical_volume": 55.4, "trend": 235.067669, "fair_value": 206.552162, "relative_strength": -0.951351, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", 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"trend": 236.196198, "fair_value": 186.273524, "relative_strength": 32.755045, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.172063, "energy": 30.360129, "activity_lines": [ 313.67534, 340.203706, 316.663354, 282.472104 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 251.0, "volume": 147, "typical_volume": 208.9, "trend": 240.573795, "fair_value": 186.36054, "relative_strength": 21.155565, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.456933, "energy": 26.5978, "activity_lines": [ 287.474005, 322.132956, 313.849952, 283.427188 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 283.5, "volume": 641, "typical_volume": 240.85, "trend": 246.034724, "fair_value": 186.723281, "relative_strength": 39.704788, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.964063, "energy": 28.773594, "activity_lines": [ 279.89067, 311.550863, 313.757861, 286.19662 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }