{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad6cf10b-783a-4578-b286-dfada0003b2f", "symbol": "4111", "name": "Chi Sheng Pharma & Biotech Co., Ltd", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 55.771, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 21.556, "architecture_energy": 12.195, "architecture_maturity": 12.36, "architecture_confidence": 72.301, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.77, "rotation_up": 23.94, "upward_expansion": 52.12, "deceleration": 86.2, "rotation_down": 34.57, "downward_expansion": 22.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.883333, 29.972727, 29.972143, 29.880968 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 29.85, "trend_reference": 29.801667, "distance_from_trend": 0.001622, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.759918, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.115474, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.589173, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.006745, "excess_performance": -0.434627, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001622, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00393, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.115474, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030671, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.295892, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02555, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006745, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.839047, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 527348, "relative_activity": 1.146698, "balance": 0.839047, "dry_up": 0.770733, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02126, "annualized_volatility": 0.082353, "from_high_reference": -0.092705, "from_low_reference": 0.034662 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.801667, "fair_value_reference": 26.759918, "structural_low": 28.9, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.006252, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.010477, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.132692, "worst_return": -0.011745, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.018349, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.060628, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.086207, "worst_return": 0.006711, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.126534, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.12113, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.214506, "worst_return": 0.055046, "sufficient": false }, { 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29.971819, 29.798333, 29.742258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 30.4, "volume": 513724, "typical_volume": 570319.0, "trend": 29.713333, "fair_value": 26.544219, "relative_strength": -34.562844, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.522388, "energy": 28.259194, "activity_lines": [ 30.07, 30.059091, 29.863095, 29.788172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 30.35, "volume": 291966, "typical_volume": 562434.05, "trend": 29.728333, "fair_value": 26.575844, "relative_strength": -31.803176, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.015831, "energy": 30.226053, "activity_lines": [ 30.166667, 30.117273, 29.919524, 29.829247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.950001, "volume": 361602, "typical_volume": 554926.3, "trend": 29.726667, "fair_value": 26.610354, "relative_strength": -27.653794, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.544606, "energy": 22.809127, "activity_lines": [ 30.116667, 30.086364, 29.935238, 29.843549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.049999, "volume": 228971, "typical_volume": 542217.9, "trend": 29.748333, "fair_value": 26.64605, "relative_strength": -28.241919, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.056848, "energy": 25.156789, "activity_lines": [ 30.1, 30.081818, 29.960714, 29.864409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.85, "volume": 264088, "typical_volume": 476918.55, "trend": 29.763333, "fair_value": 26.681826, "relative_strength": -27.004446, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.861794, "energy": 13.962225, "activity_lines": [ 30.026667, 30.042727, 29.966905, 29.870968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.85, "volume": 397384, "typical_volume": 472037.2, "trend": 29.781667, "fair_value": 26.719237, "relative_strength": -27.91925, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.983236, "energy": 13.704316, "activity_lines": [ 29.936667, 30.006364, 29.970476, 29.876559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 29.85, "volume": 527348, "typical_volume": 459884.05, "trend": 29.801667, "fair_value": 26.759918, "relative_strength": -29.589173, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.555959, "energy": 12.195471, "activity_lines": [ 29.883333, 29.972727, 29.972143, 29.880968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }