{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ad6d4c22-2a52-400b-bb2d-d091adbdf9c0", "symbol": "000792", "name": "Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 60.654, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.523, "architecture_energy": 51.248, "architecture_maturity": 25.785, "architecture_confidence": 89.688, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.05, "rotation_up": 24.2, "upward_expansion": 8.44, "deceleration": 51.31, "rotation_down": 51.13, "downward_expansion": 79.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.272666, 27.643273, 29.928048, 31.630817 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.799999, "trend_reference": 33.133, "distance_from_trend": -0.130776, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.754231, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.387669, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.632544, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.121416, "excess_performance": -0.128815, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.130776, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019623, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.387669, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.519961, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026325, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.258062, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.121416, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.442414, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 268264473, "relative_activity": 0.692214, "balance": 0.442414, "dry_up": 0.941774, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09781, "annualized_volatility": 0.508609, "from_high_reference": -0.307692, "from_low_reference": 0.613445 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.133, "fair_value_reference": 20.754231, "structural_low": 24.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.025367, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.003074, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.195104, "worst_return": -0.134413, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.035642, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019407, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.220779, "worst_return": -0.17011, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.036041, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.089734, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.591223, "worst_return": -0.231648, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007004, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028914, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051313, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004765, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045346, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": 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51.247925, "activity_lines": [ 27.272666, 27.643273, 29.928048, 31.630817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }